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the bkx monthly


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#1 gannman

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Posted 16 October 2016 - 06:18 PM

looking at the bkx starting in feb 2007 we went down for about two years into mar 09 in what i will call wave A

 

we have since mar 09 been doing a B wave imo which retraced .62 of the drop

 

according to elliott we are due for a C wave. it will arrive eventually and when it does it will be obvious

 

the A wave lasted almost 2 years and it would not surprise me if the C wave lasts almost two years but we will see

 

anyway a C wave is coming at least in my opine 

 

 


feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#2 gannman

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Posted 16 October 2016 - 06:30 PM

in other words the bkx is going back to its lows of 2009 around 18 and will lose about 75 % of its value from where it closed friday


feeling mellow with the yellow metal


#3 Charvo

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Posted 16 October 2016 - 10:16 PM

This is definitely an interesting assessment because it could mean negative rates are on the horizon in the USA which would be a killer for bank profits.  The European STOXX banking index is near the 2009 lows.  In the near-term, the banking index could float up into the interest rate hike in December.  I think the expectations for a hike are baked in the cake, so the Fed has to hike in December unless armageddon happens post-election.



#4 gannman

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Posted 17 October 2016 - 04:57 AM

i agree unless a disaster happens i would expect a hike probably .25 and a statement saying they will adopt a wait and see attitude after that. we will see


feeling mellow with the yellow metal