31 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

Here's what we had for the SPX today:

 

Wednesday's SPX

 

SPX - GAP UP ON EVEN LIGHTER VOLUME - Well it was hard to imagine that volume would be even lighter on Tuesday but that's what we have, and now we have a bearish upthrust as the SPX is trading at levels that were attained on MUCH STRONGER VOLUME - nevertheless a bearish upthrust can continue until we see a PRICE REJECTION - we didn't get it today we got the gap that held and a close at 2139 or up 13 points on the day.  Now we are also still in the range of the REFERENCE CANDLE (LAST DAY OF EXTREME VOLUME) fro 2131-2146 so that still frames the action here, basically a move under 2131 is bearish especially on a close under and over 2146 and a close over sets up a platform of support under the SPX.  So we'll see now, we had a positive oil inventory report and the crude contract is bidding up and that's generally good for the SPX...

 

 

[lawdog]

I say, let your prophets run. (Picture Charlton Heston as Moses in a 5K).

[SemiBizz]

Last Day of Volume 9/16 September OPEX Reference Candle RULES the SPX here...

 

Low 2131

High 2146

 

A whole month has gone by and we are nowhere at today's close of 2144.29.

 

OPEX Friday.

[NAV]

 

Moved STOP to SPX 2141.9

 

I would need more profit cushion to hold this overnight...

 

They can slice you up, that's their game..

 

Good Luck.

 

 

 

Semi,

 

Yes, you live with that risk pretty much every day of your life as a trader. The game is not so simple that they let you carry your position with a sweet cushion everyday. You gotta take the risk.

 

Finally, you have to put things in perspective. What's the worst that can happen ? One more 15-20 point gap against me ? Sure, it's possible. That would suck, if it happens. But that's less than 0.75% - 1% if you are trading non-leveraged and about 1.5% - 2%, if you are trading 2X leveraged. I trade with 2X leverage max. So i don't lose sleep over this every night. Well if one is a gambler trading 1 ES per 10k, he should be worried - very very worried as he won't last long.

 

Well, there was very little i liked about today's price action. We could not even take out the 10/14 high and the close was again neutral. But my darn system still has me long. We'll see what happens.

[EntropyModel]

 

 

Moved STOP to SPX 2141.9

 

I would need more profit cushion to hold this overnight...

 

They can slice you up, that's their game..

 

Good Luck.

 

 

 

Semi,

 

Yes, you live with that risk pretty much every day of your life as a trader. The game is not so simple that they let you carry your position with a sweet cushion everyday. You gotta take the risk.

 

Finally, you have to put things in perspective. What's the worst that can happen ? One more 15-20 point gap against me ? Sure, it's possible. That would suck, if it happens. But that's less than 0.75% - 1% if you are trading non-leveraged and about 1.5% - 2%, if you are trading 2X leveraged. I trade with 2X leverage max. So i don't lose sleep over this every night. Well if one is a gambler trading 1 ES per 10k, he should be worried - very very worried as he won't last long.

 

Well, there was very little i liked about today's price action. We could not even take out the 10/14 high and the close was again neutral. But my darn system still has me long. We'll see what happens.

 

 

 

Question of style again here  'discretion versus mechanical' trading :  -> When you have a trade setup, do you:

a, Apply discretion - pick and chose which ones to take  OR

b. Mechanically take ALL trades?

 

Your approach seems  mechanical NAV i.e. take all signals, correct me if i'm wrong.

 

I've always been discretionary but this year i'm working to become mechanical  because:

a. Often the one's you pass up would have been better than the one's you don't.

b. When you have losing trades, you start restricting what you will take more and more ...i.e your discretionary 'logic' is too easily influenced by emotion from loses.

 

best

Mark

Edited by Entropy2.0, 19 October 2016 - 06:06 PM.

[dasein]

thanks for the headsup Geo...

[NAV]

Mark,

 

Yes, i am a mechanical trader. As for "b)", you are right. But the solution is not selecting the trades, but to cut down on position size. If you have a well designed system, it would by definition already be selecting the best trades. 

Edited by NAV, 19 October 2016 - 09:13 PM.

[Geomean]

I just got a TDSEQ Countdown 13 sell signal on the @ES hourly (set for 10 am CDT)

 
I see the likelihood is high in the afternoon/tomorrow morning............

RUT hourly printed a TDSEQ and Combo Countdown 13 exhaustion area sell in the PM on the 19th. Looking for a minuette Wave 2 of 5 or 2 of a C to complete here but wave 2 end points always hard to predict. ES pivoted @ the .618. A pivot in this area would then count using the SPX as a 2 of a larger Wave 3 of 5 or 3 of a C downward wave ahead (counts begin at the Aug tops) so next could be the proverbial wave 3 of a 3 using either count. This would be confirmed by a break of last weeks lows. But with op ex ahead, we may chop around here or go a little higher before bigger action next week.

@CL printed a TD Combo countdown exhaustion area sell in the PM yesterday. @CL this am looks like we're in a minuette wave 4 of a 5 wave up thrust out of a triangle (that completed a minute Wave 4) to complete minute wave 5 and what may prove to be a larger degree C wave of a A-B-C (and perhaps a degree Wave 4 if new lows below Jan 2016 are made) from the 2016 low (it's hard to count it as impulsive) with a target area of around 52.32-52.77 in a day or two so the TD Combo sell that printed yesterday could ID the end of minuette wave 3 with a fully "qualified" TD SEQ countdown sell 13 print ahead on the @ CL hourly to potentially id the ending area of 5 of the up thrust. Stocks, oil could then be in sync to the downside and op ex behind us.

[NAV]

My STOP is now below the first 5-min bar.

[SemiBizz]

There's nothing left to do now except to test the reference candle LOW support in this trading range at

 

2131.20