I was worried about 10/19 being a high, but didn't exit long positions, because the election seasonal pattern highs off of bottom hadn't been reached. Clearly the retracement of Thurs and today, show it was a high, but a turn date was 10/21 as well. It would appear with the OOPS buy signal we got this morning following through today would appear to make 10/21 a low. Typically an OOPS pattern is to exit on the next opening, which would be Monday AM. 10/24 is also a minor turn date, so I have a hunch that we gap and initially rally on Monday to reach the targets SPY 216-217 in keeping with the strength of the last Monday of the month and an OOPS sell action. But I would not be surprised to then sell-off beginning late Monday into a low on Tuesday AM/PM, since 10/24 is also a minor turn date.
There is a very strong seasonal Buy pattern that takes place at the close of 10/24 and ends on COB 11/1. This matches up with the presidential pattern for a low late in Oct and a high in early Nov. 10/28 is also a major turn date and with the first Monday 10/31 providing strength. Its possible that 10/28 is a low, however, that would be counter to all three election patterns I have seen with the low taking place well before the month ends.
I am hanging onto my long put spreads until Monday AM or 216, before I go flat for a bottom to occur early next week Mon or Tues. I will be long into the election. The election pattern is to be short coming out, which I take as sell the news as the pattern has been predicting the incumbents win (83% today) and sells off into Nov mid to post options expiration in a choppy pattern with a continuation of the sell off in GLD to continue post election.
That's my plan and will see if I have to make adjustments to it as well?
Edited by thoughtpwr, 21 October 2016 - 12:46 PM.
