It's been a while since I visited the late Terry Laundry's long term work.
In the first chart below, he observed a 40 year cycle which was overlapped by deeper 80 year cycle, which he surmised would end in a depression-like low between 2010 to 2020.
Additionally he had also opined the possibility of a megaphone top as a speculative peak.
So thought I would share an update showing the megaphone possible topping.
In the bottom chart, He had noted a 7 year average cycle which "normally" would have bottomed near 2016's January low. But one wonders where a 2023 bottom will be found.
The effect of low to negative interest rates and other unprecedented FED manipulation are likely evident in altering "normal" cycles; but the longer term effects are yet to be determined.
If it were not for $20 trillion debt supporting the markets and the unemployed, I think his depression prediction would be much more obvious. Those long soup lines were made obsolete by Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), the Women, Infants and Children (WIC) food program, Supplemental Security Income (SSI), food stamps, child nutrition programs, public housing and Section 8 housing, and Medicaid.
Series title: (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate
Labor force status: Civilian labor force participation rate
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 years and over
Chart "Courtesy of ShadowStats.com"
Edited by Rogerdodger, 23 October 2016 - 01:00 AM.