Jump to content



Photo

Mega T-Theory update: 40 year low by 2020


  • Please log in to reply
9 replies to this topic

#1 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 26,862 posts

Posted 23 October 2016 - 12:06 AM

It's been a while since I visited the late Terry Laundry's long term work.

In the first chart below, he observed a 40 year cycle which was overlapped by deeper 80 year cycle, which he surmised would end in a depression-like low between 2010 to 2020.

 

Additionally he had also opined the possibility of a megaphone top as a speculative peak.

So thought I would share an update showing the megaphone possible topping.

 

In the bottom chart, He had noted a 7 year average cycle which "normally" would have bottomed near 2016's January low. But one wonders where a 2023 bottom will be found.

 

The effect of low to negative interest rates and other unprecedented FED manipulation are likely evident in altering "normal" cycles; but the longer term effects are yet to be determined.

Laundry_s_80_year.jpgLong_Mega_T_Update.jpg

Terry_s_M_Cycle_top_2014.jpg

If it were not for $20 trillion debt supporting the markets and the unemployed, I think his depression prediction would be much more obvious. Those long soup lines were made obsolete by Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), the Women, Infants and Children (WIC) food program, Supplemental Security Income (SSI), food stamps, child nutrition programs, public housing and Section 8 housing, and Medicaid.

 

Series title:        (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate
Labor force status:  Civilian labor force participation rate
Type of data:        Percent or rate
Age:                 16 years and over

latest_numbers_LNS11300000_1987_2016_allsgs-emp.gif

Chart "Courtesy of ShadowStats.com"


Edited by Rogerdodger, 23 October 2016 - 01:00 AM.


#2 DaVinny

DaVinny

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 54 posts

Posted 23 October 2016 - 01:23 AM

Nice charts. They may try to hold this up until election, and lights out if Fed hike then US falls into recession

 

http://www.telegraph...-storm-gathers/


==============================================================
"The greatest deception men suffer is from their own opinions." – Leonardo daVinci
==============================================================

#3 MDurkin

MDurkin

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 638 posts

Posted 23 October 2016 - 05:01 AM

Thanks.



#4 pdx5

pdx5

    I want return OF my money more than return ON my money

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,521 posts

Posted 23 October 2016 - 11:20 AM

Nice charts.


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#5 risk_management

risk_management

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,772 posts

Posted 23 October 2016 - 12:28 PM

Thank you Roger. 

 

Current type of financial engineering is on it's last leg.  They need to invent something new ASAP.



#6 AChartist

AChartist

    Tim

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 5,800 posts

Posted 23 October 2016 - 12:39 PM

My qtrly is also low in about 2020-21.

 

I dont intend to have anything to do with stocks or markets until then

 

but the generational trades are gold for 5 years, 

 

short treasuries,

 

china reserve currency status, I think Armstrong says they lead after 2020, so far

 

has been the least equity volatility in my 401k. I am not really looking at going big

 

China until 2020 but have an allocation now. The critical point is stay out of their

 

ponzie markets so that the capital for china is preserved until 2020.


"marxism-lennonism-communism always fails and never worked, because I know

some of them, and they don't work"  M.Jordan


#7 pedro

pedro

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 767 posts

Posted 23 October 2016 - 04:14 PM

I gather the LT T Theory Oscillator cannot be updated to 2016?

 

Good stuff though.  Thx



#8 dasein

dasein

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 7,696 posts

Posted 23 October 2016 - 05:59 PM

the decade markers seem off - if you line up the big dip of 29, 200 doesnt line up nor does 2010 or 2020....

 

thx


best,
klh

#9 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 26,862 posts

Posted 23 October 2016 - 09:06 PM

I gather the LT T Theory Oscillator cannot be updated to 2016?

 

Good stuff though.  Thx

 

I'm not sure how Terry built this oscillator.



#10 gm_general

gm_general

    Member

  • TT Member+
  • 1,653 posts

Posted 24 October 2016 - 01:58 PM

Also the CAPE work seems to indicate there was a P/E compression period starting with P/E bubble in 2000. The prior 3 compressions took about 18-20 years to complete, and they did not terminate until CAPE reached 5-7 range. Since CAPE is like 27 now, you can imagine where that would take you. CAPE should decline against a line of resistance which started over 40 this time. Will that take extra long this time since it started so high? guess we will see. BTW looking at the CAPE bubble chart, those in 1929 and 2000 were the big bubbles, alternating ones were less major.