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Crash Update


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#1 RagingSpartan

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Posted 24 October 2016 - 12:53 PM

Payment odds increased again last week.



#2 lawdog

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Posted 24 October 2016 - 01:37 PM

dream on



#3 RagingSpartan

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Posted 24 October 2016 - 01:45 PM

It's best to be on the sideline now.



#4 alexnewbee

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Posted 24 October 2016 - 01:59 PM

what are your reasons? thks


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#5 RagingSpartan

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Posted 24 October 2016 - 02:10 PM

When crash conditions are present I move to cash. Will allocate back when it's safe.



#6 alexnewbee

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Posted 24 October 2016 - 02:14 PM

Atilla on twitter also calling crash..
I doubt it yet.
"we do G.d's work" Lloyd Blankfein

#7 lawdog

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Posted 24 October 2016 - 02:15 PM

the market got overbought by mid-july. since then it has worked off the ob condition with little damage to the averages. sentiment-wise, there is enough fear (investors intelligence, aaii, put/call ratios, if you can read them with historical perspective, etc.) and enough positive market action, to leave room for the sp500 to surpass 2200 by a bit. so, this is why i am long now. but i will scale back a lot before the election  other than looking at some vix calls if they are not over-priced by then. everyone is so afraid of holding overnight, but that's where the action has been. there is risk no matter what you do, long, short and on the sidelines. people fail to realize that if you are not invested, you are taking the risk of missing an important move. weight of the evidence requires me to take the risk of being long now.



#8 alexnewbee

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Posted 24 October 2016 - 02:20 PM

Hussman also says that crash conditions are there - value investors do not buy here, trend followers ready to quit.. As stated, I doubt it, but we will see. 


"we do G.d's work" Lloyd Blankfein

#9 lawdog

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Posted 24 October 2016 - 02:33 PM

trend followers may have largely quit already, and 1-2% higher from here could give them itchy fingers to jump aboard; but i thought this was going to happen after the strong moves of sept 21 and 22, which fell flat. but i want to be there again. market is pretty gutless today.



#10 alexnewbee

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Posted 24 October 2016 - 02:36 PM

probably yes, but if 2115 on S&P is taken bottom could fall out..


Edited by alexnewbee, 24 October 2016 - 02:36 PM.

"we do G.d's work" Lloyd Blankfein