8 replies to this topic

[inthemoneystocks]

This morning, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note is breaking out to new highs. The yield on the 10-year note is trading higher by 7.1 basis points to 1.861%. Yes folks, this means that bond prices are falling sharply when yields rise. The chart pattern on the 10-year note yield is signaling a move to the 1.92 percent level, so there is more upside in the cards. It should be noted that the 10-year note yield affects mortgages and most other loans.

 

 

 

Nick Santiago

InTheMoneyStocks

[redfoliage2]

This is just to reinforce the likelihood of a rate hike by the Fed in December.  Bank and insurance sectors are big beneficiaries for the anticipated rate hike..........

Edited by redfoliage2, 27 October 2016 - 11:13 AM.

[OEXCHAOS]

The TYX is up, but the inverse head and shoulders pattern, while promising, hasn't broken the neckline to the upside.

 

I'd not get too excited about higher rates until then.

 

I don't see enough economic strength out there, yet, really, but maybe it'll come. Maybe.

 

M

[Bernie]

Tmv, has had a good move since September. Probably come back to earth on the miniscule rate hike. If we get one at all.

Edited by Bernie, 27 October 2016 - 11:33 AM.

[pedro]

Could be wrong, but at ZIRP and NIRP rates, there's not a whole lot of private sector demand for US T's.

Then you have the Fed buying but only at a set pace.   (Reinvesting dividends)

While foreign sovereigns wealth funds are having to liquidate to meet budget crunches, or for other reasons.

There may also be some anxiety about US budget deficits widening in the midst of this stellar economy recovery we have going.

Bottom line, this rising yields move is the market sending a message.

Edited by pedro, 27 October 2016 - 02:02 PM.

[MaryAM]

I said a long time ago that the bond market would set interest rates - not the FED. Gov debt is a liability at zirp. Interest rates will have nothing to do with inflation - it will reflect the quality of the debt. US debt is going to junk and may become fashionable wallpaper.

[MaryAM]

I might also add that rising interest rates are reflecting recent rise in the value of the dollar. It will become self feeding. The more the dollar rises, the higher interest rates will rise against weaker dollar debt contracts. As interest rates rise, it will also force the dollar ever higher. Welcome to hyper deflation.

[alexnewbee]

I might also add that rising interest rates are reflecting recent rise in the value of the dollar. It will become self feeding. The more the dollar rises, the higher interest rates will rise against weaker dollar debt contracts. As interest rates rise, it will also force the dollar ever higher. Welcome to hyper deflation.

+1

plus collapsing equities and commodities.

[MaryAM]

I just happened to have a sleepless night last night and was reading and occasionally checking the futures market.  In the middle of the night the DOW was down about 50 and interest on 2,5s and 10s were all up significantly.  Then around 6:00 am and a few minutes thereafter - interest rates came down and the DOW went up.  What in the hell is happening in the middle of the night?  I suspect the FED intervened in the bond market very early this am.  Is there any way of finding out what the FED's holdings of US bonds are?  What percentage of total debt they are allowed to hold?  I can't suspect that a few independent investors suddenly decided to buy US debt early in the morning.   This was clearly some sort of intervention - and in my opinion manipulation.