17 replies to this topic

[Stickan]

Hi Blu, I sold my goldstocks this afternoon (european time) They didn't do what they where supposed to do and I am not a brave man. I was - but it became to expensive..... stig

[blustar]

You did a good thing. It may not be the exact top but you are close. Wait for the new year just after the low in the stock market (about 2-3 days to as much as 2 weeks as in March of this year) as I don't even think the 8 month cycle is going to pan out. 8 month cycles have run 9-10 months in the past and on average 2 cycles usually combine to form a longer 17-18 month cycle in bull markets (18-19 in a bears). I think the low will be sometime in January 2004 (or late Dec at the earliest) and then I have the XAU up to 160-180 by Oct/Nov next year. I believe the 8 month cycle in gold is like the 9 month cycle in stocks and should be labled the 9 month cycle instead. Even my 10.67 year cycle low could be off. It has been off 2 weeks in the past. This could also be the legendary 8 year cycle top come early (by 2 months). Silver looks like it could hit $3.50 by March on a double bottom. That tells me that true liquidity won't be coming in strongly until the March secondary bottom in stocks. blessings, blustar

[blustar]

I just did a daily diagnostic on gold stocks like NEM and BGO and have come to the conclusion that the top has not been put in yet, but is close. I just wanted to let you know that I wasn't calling for the top but that a sell-off was coming. I see support on BGO at 2.85 Monday and it should make a great ST play in one more spike up. NEM has resistance at 46.50 and that should mark the top of this move. It is possible we get $400 and we get a euphoric blow-off. Just wanted to let you know that I like this pull back for one more run. blustar

[geosing]

Stig, How will you re-interpret your charts now? When you have time, can you perhaps post your review? Thanks.

[blustar]

The top should come around Nov 13-15 for gold from what I can see and then down 7-8 weeks into Jan. blustar

[PIK.]

Blu, here is the NEM chart I posted on 10/17 with the same commentary. Glad we finally have something to agree on.

I would also anticipate a higher probability of a reversal once NEM hits this next resistance level. I do have a position in NEM which has been good to me, so I'll keep riding this out and moving the stops up along the way.

Good trading.

http://stockcharts.c...18135200,Y].gif

[blustar]

I suspect that NEM 45-46 will end it in about 1-2 weeks. Support is just under 40. blustar

[PIK.]

Blu, I see 39.5-40.5 as the first major support off of the daily chart, with some minor support levels in between. There is also an unfilled gap at 33.5-34. Remember, resistance is just that, resistance. It doesn't necessarily guarantee any reversal, just increases the probability, obviously the same with support. Even though the probabilities continue to increase for a reversal based on the resistance levels, I don't let opinion sway what I am seeing and that continues to be an up trend. I am always anticipating the move in the opposite direction of my position, so there will be no surprises to the down side. Good profits locked in with stops in place, now, lets see if Gold can get above $400 and stay there. If it doesn't, it will only present another great buying opportunity. Regards.

[blustar]

It looks like a wave 4 of a "c" of a larger B in progress here. I see support Monday at or near $368-71 and then a final fifth wave to $394-397 by Nov 13. BGO should drop to 2.85 and then jump to maybe 3.90+ by Nov 13. I like BGO for a great ST move. Could be when we spike up (wave 5) off the low (wave 4) early Monday in the stock market that gold takes a beating, which sets up wave 5 there into Nov 13. The expected gold stock low (XAU 62) looks like Jan 8 at this point in time and gold for Jan 15 near $320. It should be a fine place to buy with both hands for the next rally into April/May 2005 IMHO. Gold at $474 plus (492-510?) would not surprise me by then. At that point I would expect another shakeout into around June/July 2005 which should set up the last buying opp into late 2006. I don't think that the expected 8 month cycle low in gold will work here and may sucker some in too early. As far as NEM is concerned, there is a long term trend line down off the 1987 and '96 tops which bisects the climbing NEM channel Nov 13 at around 45.50. Wave 1 of "c" of B in gold was also 8 market days long (equality of waves principle) and the 12 day cycle in gold bottoms on Monday, coincidentally with the expected top in the stock market. blustar

[PIK.]

Blu, not giving you a hard time or anything here, but I am truly trying to understand your time cycle analysis. On Oct. 20th you stated the 8 month cycle bottoms in late November. Yesterday, that looks to have changed by approximately 1 month. Just curious, why has that assessment changed so quickly and this potential fluctuation in the cycle not previously mentioned. Again, I am dumber than a box of rocks when it comes to time cycles, so a simple concise answer would be appreciated. TIA. Regards.