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#11 PIK.

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Posted 01 November 2003 - 04:56 PM

Blu, in addition to my previous question, I was hoping you could explain how you drew the trend line you previously mentioned. I cannot get my chart of NEM to go back that far. Was the trend line drawn off of daily, weekly or a monthly chart? Was the trend line drawn based off of closing prices? Thanks again in advance for your time in addressing my questions. Good trading.
Trade based on what you see happening, not what someone else thinks or hopes will happen.

#12 Stickan

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Posted 01 November 2003 - 06:01 PM

Geosing, I am a little short of time, so without posting any new charts, there were a few failures, not exactly in the goldprice, but CRB didn't take off as it should have and the Dollar broke up through a (minor) trendline, which (may have ) caused the sharp selloff and dropping below a (minor) trendline, friday noon when I sold (closed above though). Since I, presently, don't have the time to wait out a possible correction I have to leave the game before any possible losses appear. I trade possible lower winnings with lower losses right now. Monday I can't trade, so a possible fall could be costly to me. And I don't like gold resting on a trendline while I am travelling. It could take off, but also fall through it -and such falls are often dramatic. So I decided to bail out. Besides looking at the rest of the market later on, I find several other prospects that looks more interesting among other stocks. I hope to be able to post more charts later next week. Best regards stig

#13 SevenOfEleven

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Posted 01 November 2003 - 08:52 PM

Blu, not giving you a hard time or anything here, but I am truly trying to understand your time cycle analysis.  On Oct. 20th you stated the 8 month cycle bottoms in late November.  Yesterday, that looks to have changed by approximately 1 month. 

Just curious, why has that assessment changed so quickly and this potential fluctuation in the cycle not previously mentioned.

Again, I am dumber than a box of rocks when it comes to time cycles, so a simple concise answer would be appreciated.

TIA.

Regards.


Hope this shows up correctly. If not - go to bigcharts.com, enter NEM, set period to either monthly or quarterly (chart below should be quarterly), select 'all data', and voila. -Seven

http://chart.bigchar...mocktick=1&.gif

#14 SevenOfEleven

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Posted 01 November 2003 - 08:56 PM

Betelguese - my last reply was meant to go with your "Posted on Nov 1 2003, 04:56 PM" post. Apologies - 'Edit' doesn't seem to be enabled on this board :rolleyes:

#15 PIK.

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Posted 01 November 2003 - 09:07 PM

Seven of Eleven, thanks. I was staring at the chart wondering what the heck that had to do with an 8 month cycle turning into a 9 month cycle. :lol: I see where the trend line is coming from now, I like to use closing prices to locate my trend lines (personal preference). Thanks again for the reply, it is appreciated.
Trade based on what you see happening, not what someone else thinks or hopes will happen.

#16 SevenOfEleven

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Posted 01 November 2003 - 09:44 PM

Seven of Eleven, thanks. I was staring at the chart wondering what the heck that had to do with an 8 month cycle turning into a 9 month cycle. :lol:

I see where the trend line is coming from now, I like to use closing prices to locate my trend lines (personal preference).

Thanks again for the reply, it is appreciated.

No sweat - I appreciate reading everyone's posts.

#17 blustar

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Posted 02 November 2003 - 06:13 AM

This chart of NEM is not a log chart, which is what I use. Anyway, sometimes the cycles elongate and sometimes they shorten. It happens in the stock market as well. The 9 month cycle runs 8 and sometimes 10. It appears that this time the 9 month in the stock market will be ten months. I believe that gold and stocks will pretty much correct together into January. I also believe gold's top won't be until Nov 13. This is based on "the equality of waves principle" where wave five = wave one in time and price. Looking back on the the combination of two 8 month cycles in gold, I have found that they tend to run 17.5 months, not 16, in bull runs. In bear falls they tend to elongate to 18.5 months. The last sequence it ran 9.5-8-8 and now about 9.5. The average is about 9 months, which is about what the stock market does and may be a function of liquidity. The chart of the XAU shows a top eerily similar to the June 2002 top. July 2002's bottom would have been Wave A and now we are approaching Wave B in a flat flag (actually we are in wave 4 of "c" of B). This flag has a slight upward bias and Wave C would go back to where wave "c" in the B Wave began and that is March 2003 near 62. This would be called a "bull flag". The July 2002 bottom marked Wave "A" of larger import in the stock market and the two markets fell because of overspeculation and the drying up of liquidity, which is where we are now. Banks are selling T-bills like there is no tomorrow and ST rates are rising rapidly at the same time long rates are falling. The money supply is falling to about no growth from growth in the teens earlier this year on a per centage basis and you can see that in the topping formation in the stock market. It wouldn't surprise me if we don't retest 767-790 in Jan 2004 on the SPX and at least 767 in March 2004. Like I said, I believe that the expected 8 month cycle will be a bull trap for the gold bugs. The reason I caught it was the e-wave "equal time sequence" of A and C waves on flat flags didn't match to the 8 month cycle at all. In July 2002, the XAU bottomed 2 days after the stock market bottomed. I counted the days down on Wave A and it was 37 market days. Nov 13 to Jan 8 marks 37 days. Jan 6th would be exactly 48 market days from the Oct 24 low in the stock market and fits the 9.5/11 week cycle perfectly (Jan 6-15). The current 13 week cycle top in the stock market is deviating by about 6.5 weeks, which is its half cycle. The dominant cycle should have peaked on Sept 18, 2003 but looks likely to do so on or about Nov 3-4. The half cycle tops again around Dec 18 and the new dominant cycle on or around Feb 5, 2004 (adjusting for the Holidays). The gold "A Wave" fell from late Jan 2003 into late March and marked 42 market days. 42 market days from Nov 13 = Jan 15, so it is possible that gold itself may not bottom until then. NEM bottomed on July 24, 2002 with the stock market and may be expected to do so next year with the, mid caps and juniors following suit. DROOY took 3 days to bottom, so I would say that Jan 6-9 would likely be your bottom in the gold stocks "majors to minors" (no pun intended). :rolleyes: blustar

Blessings,

 

blu

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#18 PIK.

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Posted 02 November 2003 - 07:04 AM

Blu, thanks for taking the time to explain your position. Now I understand better that time cycles are not "written in stone" and can fluctuate. I will keep that in mind as this scenario plays out. Heck, the best prediction I can give you is what I am going to eat for breakfast tomorrow :blink: , as my analysis has almost no predictive value, so I will just continue to ride this trend out, raise stops along the way and see what happens. Best of luck and lets all try to make $ together! Regards.
Trade based on what you see happening, not what someone else thinks or hopes will happen.