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NAZ and contrarian trade


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#1 lawdog

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Posted 02 December 2016 - 11:16 AM

NAZ 100 model wildly oversold. if you are a contrarian such as i am, a few probing trades on the long side is irresistible here if the pullback this morning is contained. . . . So while writing this  I missed the pullback, but i'm on it at where the ndx closed last night. must not get greedy. this has become a traders' market, warranting smaller positions and taking gains (one hopes) more quickly than in a trending market. money management makes all the difference. 1/4 to 1/2 percent movements in your underlying index should be secured with sell stops; overnite positions reduced. 

 

with that said, the risk-reward on the long side remains terrible and by no means has this pullback run its course. i intend to take larger short positions than long positions for now and will have a much lower tolerance for long trades going south, with a higher tolerance for short trades that are showing losses or paring gains.

 

case in point: qld just gained .57% in 20 minutes: i'll let them take part of my position. we'll see if the ndx can go higher. i prefer the sso (2 x spx) because it is not as volatile, saving some emotional trauma when i get it wrong, giving me the ability to stay with my positions instead of kicking the dog and closing out at the exact turning point, which i have certainly done on frequent occasions (though i don't really have a dog to kick).

 

hmm . . . the ndx has now given back half its gain. if it can hold a higher low here, should i take back what i just sold? no, don't get greedy. too much downside risk. if the ndx tacks on some more here, i will put on some sell stops and leave it alone until the final hour, which is always inscrutable, particularly  on a friday.

 

at this point, i expect that if i hold any position over the weekend, it will be a small short position in the spx (sds).

 

qld coming back from a higher low,; can it make a higher intraday high here? if the index gets to + 25 today (4760), the sell stops go on for my remaining position.



#2 lawdog

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Posted 02 December 2016 - 12:00 PM

liking the higher highs and higher lows on ndx; added back some to my position in qld; this recovery might have legs.



#3 lawdog

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Posted 02 December 2016 - 01:09 PM

Gaining a bit more confidence in the long side here. May hold long positions over the weekend.



#4 lawdog

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Posted 02 December 2016 - 03:33 PM

QLD just broke above its intraday declining triangle; good chance of running up significantly from here.



#5 gameover

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Posted 02 December 2016 - 03:37 PM

naz is a BUY

 

close your eyes and hold



#6 AChartist

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Posted 02 December 2016 - 10:50 PM

my RUT cycles are ugly for several weeks, doesnt have to happen but  a good

 

chance of an air drop straight ahead for 5-6 weeks. I am hedged enough to be neutral

 

particularly since gold should be up two weeks, if not crashing right out of the gate

 

I would like some UVXY calls for 6 weeks out, on Monday open. Bitcoin on a tear, suppose to

 

go fast once over 788 to over 1000. If would switch over to stocks in 5-6 weeks if it happens that way.


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some of them, and they don't work"  M.Jordan


#7 NAV

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Posted 04 December 2016 - 07:54 AM

naz is a BUY

 

close your eyes and hold

tongue.png


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#8 lawdog

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Posted 04 December 2016 - 11:08 AM

I expect to be at least 50% long by noon NY time tomorrow, holding my naz (QLD) (presently 15% of full position)  and adding 35% thru the sso etf (2x spx). my analysis suggests the rally that started 4 weeks ago has been refreshed with this moderate correction and is a great opportunity for a sustained swing trade on the long side, very possibly running higher for another 2 months, with consolidations as we go. good money management is critical as always, but as long as intermediate term oscillators stay favorable, i will maintain some long positions, and perhaps fully leveraged (250%), based upon the technicals. if the market is choppy, i will keep smaller sustained long positions and trade in and out with oscillators and stops for the rest, with a bullish bias.  



#9 NAV

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Posted 04 December 2016 - 12:07 PM

I expect to be at least 50% long by noon NY time tomorrow, holding my naz (QLD) (presently 15% of full position)  and adding 35% thru the sso etf (2x spx). my analysis suggests the rally that started 4 weeks ago has been refreshed with this moderate correction and is a great opportunity for a sustained swing trade on the long side, very possibly running higher for another 2 months, with consolidations as we go. good money management is critical as always, but as long as intermediate term oscillators stay favorable, i will maintain some long positions, and perhaps fully leveraged (250%), based upon the technicals. if the market is choppy, i will keep smaller sustained long positions and trade in and out with oscillators and stops for the rest, with a bullish bias.  

 

Let us know when you go 250% long.


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

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