The update looks like a good chance to crash for two weeks.
Next 9 week high in 8 weeks is much less supported by other cycles as the
last election rally was. Say a recovery until this time in Feb, after a two week mini crash,
then the next decline looks long to September, with no supporting cycles.
But, I am of the opinion that even bonds are worse because stocks will live another day and debt will not,
and the 401k will be long stocks with
large hedge in the short fund. And a heavy dose in gold funds. Tomorrow I will build up the
short fund from 7.5% to 10%.
If it works this way buying stocks in Sep could be the retirement trade.
My new position is short real estate MEK etf, will add to if bonds up sometime in next two weeks if they get
scared out of stocks.
If it works out how I think the gold funds and bitcoin will be
capital for stocks in Sep.
I should know if I'm on track if stocks turn down again from a bounce attempt late jan to first of Feb, that is
my marker to proceed with this plan as the cycles look.
But I want to say the election bounce was supported by two cycles and going forward is zero support and it could
get real ugly all the way until Sep. The ideal pattern would be down hard now, bounce end of Jan with inauguration
hope, then a long trend down most of the year. I still think inauguration will be sabotaged too and end of Jan first of
Feb bounce may be a late inauguration relief reflex.
