I went short Oil this AM via USO. i just now added short after looking at my 5hr futures chart. today we did an evening star [textbook bearish] its a beauty,and fundamentals also fit unless you believe in OPEC. Of course something can always go wrong . i use stops....will follow up.
OIL
#1
Posted 05 December 2016 - 05:26 PM
#2
Posted 05 December 2016 - 06:20 PM
I think it's the right trade. Schaeffer research mentioned there was heavy call buying in USO which should provide some sort of ceiling. On the other hand, I am a great fade.
#3
Posted 05 December 2016 - 07:28 PM
I too am looking for weakness in oil, however, I am not sure it doesn't just consolidate at lower levels near Wed breakout point before moving higher. My intent is to try CVX long, due to its strenght, once it gets down to and holds 111. I will be doing a put spread instead of actual long position.
#4
Posted 05 December 2016 - 08:46 PM
I too am looking for weakness in oil, however, I am not sure it doesn't just consolidate at lower levels near Wed breakout point before moving higher. My intent is to try CVX long, due to its strenght, once it gets down to and holds 111. I will be doing a put spread instead of actual long position.
An individual stock might not always move in relation to its coresponding index , for various reasons.therefore i treat each symbol on its own merit.
#5
Posted 05 December 2016 - 10:05 PM
USO is the best way to short oil because of the rollover drag due to contango in oil futures. The performance YTD speaks volumes -- USO is down 4% while crude oil (continuous contract) is up 65%! USO is a dog investment. I am long Feb 11 and Jan 10 puts.
People think the Holy Grail is something looked for but never found. In fact, it is something often found but rarely recognized.
#6
Posted 05 December 2016 - 10:23 PM
USO is the best way to short oil because of the rollover drag due to contango in oil futures. The performance YTD speaks volumes -- USO is down 4% while crude oil (continuous contract) is up 65%! USO is a dog investment. I am long Feb 11 and Jan 10 puts.
Thanks for pointing this out , i was not aware of the above..
#7
Posted 07 December 2016 - 10:33 AM
I went short Oil this AM via USO. i just now added short after looking at my 5hr futures chart. today we did an evening star [textbook bearish] its a beauty,and fundamentals also fit unless you believe in OPEC. Of course something can always go wrong . i use stops....will follow up.
not much happening yet,, but so far so good
#8
Posted 11 December 2016 - 10:32 PM
Not sure crude is a sell at this juncture... it appears to be breaking upward through its RH&S neckline and through the latent TL on the indicator line.... the target for the RH&S is up near ~70.
Link to CL weekly: http://postimg.org/image/h0kd02huh/
#9
Posted 12 December 2016 - 01:23 PM
follow up : had a small profit but thats gone this AM ,now let it drop a bit and closing the trade at a loss.
#10
Posted 12 December 2016 - 02:52 PM
They can't allow crude to get marked up too high, that opens up Shale capacity here in the U.S.
i.e. who is afraid of the big bad wolves? (OPEC)
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
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