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Gold and Silver long term


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#1 NAV

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Posted 06 December 2016 - 12:41 AM

Gold broke below the Nov monthly candle, but silver has held above that. Until both of them break their monthly trends, i will stick with the thesis that the bull market in Gold/Silver is intact. The GDX Nov lows are also intact. This is similar to what happened in SPX and Nasdaq last fall. While S&P broke it's monthly trend, Nasdaq failed and it turned out to be a fake-out.

 

If SLV and GDX  break below Nov monthly candle lows, then i think the bear would resume, possibly taking GOLD below $1000. I am not selling my physical Gold and Silver even if that were to happen, but would be adding somewhere down the line. I am playing this not based on the charts, but on a thesis that eventually there is going to be massive currency debasement and huge inflation. Don't worry, Trump is going to take us there. The man knows 2 things - LEVERAGE and BANKRUPTCY. First he is going to use leverage and a lots of it. There will be massive spending and huge inflation and currency devaluation. There is no escaping it.

 

This post has nothing to do with short-term picture of GOLD.

 

 


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#2 pedro

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Posted 06 December 2016 - 09:34 AM

Its seems most everyone is on Resumed Bull for Gold.

I'm not, and won't be for a long time.

 

Gold topped, as rates bottomed.

I think that after one more decline, the secular move in rates is over.

So I see one more bear rally for gold next year, but to a lower high (relative to 2011)



#3 NAV

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Posted 06 December 2016 - 09:50 AM

Its seems most everyone is on Resumed Bull for Gold.

I'm not, and won't be for a long time.

 

Gold topped, as rates bottomed.

I think that after one more decline, the secular move in rates is over.

So I see one more bear rally for gold next year, but to a lower high (relative to 2011)

 

If silver breaks the Nov lows, i will be in your camp.


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#4 MDurkin

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Posted 06 December 2016 - 11:21 AM

One of the best traders report on Gold /Silver

 

http://www.marketora...ticle57414.html



#5 LMF

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Posted 06 December 2016 - 07:21 PM

Gold and silver have both failed recently up against a declining 200 week MA.....and trying to remain above a declining MA like that rarely ever works for very long.  A rising 200 week MA is one of the best bull market indicators.  The Dec 2015 low on gold was the back test of the highs from 2008.....this seems to happen to all of the major highs on the gold chart, so I think the Dec 2015 lows should hold. But the bottom formation is going to take a while longer, going into early 2017.  Silver seems to be holding ok around a long term moving average, roughly 500 days for some reason.....that MA goes thru the gap areas nicely on the SLV chart.  And silver should be outperforming gold.....