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anyone else fearing the start of a drop by a few trading sessions ?


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#1 andr99

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Posted 06 December 2016 - 01:21 PM

....nasdaq left behind and spx leading......not good.......I' m having a vision of two-three days left and then......bingo.......downwards.


Edited by andr99, 06 December 2016 - 01:23 PM.

forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#2 pisces

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Posted 06 December 2016 - 01:33 PM

....nasdaq left behind and spx leading......not good.......I' m having a vision of two-three days left and then......bingo.......downwards.

 

Feelings and Visions are not part of my trading discipline , sorry ,zorro.gif



#3 andr99

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Posted 06 December 2016 - 01:42 PM

.....vision based on what so far appears to be just a bounce in a downtrend for the nasdaq....

 

OK that I like to watch once in a while psychedelic videos by the great DM

 

 

....but when it comes to stocks I just apply TA 


forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#4 alexnewbee

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Posted 06 December 2016 - 02:08 PM

RUT is on fire. Think it is last shake out of weak shirts.
I agree, we drop soon.
"we do G.d's work" Lloyd Blankfein

#5 andr99

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Posted 06 December 2016 - 02:54 PM

european banks on fire today as well, but for example 4700 area for cac40 might be all what is left and for mibtel 18100-18200. Hard to believe america won' t lead them down if they are close to their targets. What I am asking myself is what might be this time the problem driving down america.......if I' m correct with my expectations


Edited by andr99, 06 December 2016 - 03:00 PM.

forever and only a V-E-N-E-T-K-E-N - langbard


#6 tsharp

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Posted 06 December 2016 - 03:06 PM

RUT is on fire. Think it is last shake out of weak shirts.
I agree, we drop soon.

 

Posted 29 February 2016 - 11:54 PM

yes, it is not my chart, it is from wavetrack, you can see it on the pic. it is from 2012, that is exactly the reason why it is interesting.

but very close to 2140, it does not have to be exact point, does it?

yes.

exceeding 2200 or even going sideways for next couple of years.

 

Alex, you've been bearish since last Feb... when do you change your outlook?



#7 alexnewbee

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Posted 06 December 2016 - 03:25 PM

 

RUT is on fire. Think it is last shake out of weak shirts.
I agree, we drop soon.

 

Posted 29 February 2016 - 11:54 PM

yes, it is not my chart, it is from wavetrack, you can see it on the pic. it is from 2012, that is exactly the reason why it is interesting.

but very close to 2140, it does not have to be exact point, does it?

yes.

exceeding 2200 or even going sideways for next couple of years.

 

Alex, you've been bearish since last Feb... when do you change your outlook?

 

well, you are right. I am wrong by now. at least 60 points wrong. 

in between I was right - for short time, but for at least 100 points ;)

It is obvious now that above scenario did not play out - but if, and this is big if, interest rates start going up in earnest, that scenario will come true. Low interest enabled bybacks and that was the fuel for this rally.

 

when I will become less bearish - well, I am not very bearish now, for example I covered my dow short at breakeven today @19200, but constantly looking for short entry. I think risk/reward is huge. This whole house of cards is close to falling apart.

time will tell :)


"we do G.d's work" Lloyd Blankfein

#8 gameover

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Posted 06 December 2016 - 03:56 PM

fear of a droppurebs.gif

 

WAKE UP

 

no drop is coming

 

man, when are you bears going to get with reality



#9 gameover

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Posted 06 December 2016 - 03:58 PM

 

 

RUT is on fire. Think it is last shake out of weak shirts.
I agree, we drop soon.

 

Posted 29 February 2016 - 11:54 PM

yes, it is not my chart, it is from wavetrack, you can see it on the pic. it is from 2012, that is exactly the reason why it is interesting.

but very close to 2140, it does not have to be exact point, does it?

yes.

exceeding 2200 or even going sideways for next couple of years.

 

Alex, you've been bearish since last Feb... when do you change your outlook?

 

well, you are right. I am wrong by now. at least 60 points wrong. 

in between I was right - for short time, but for at least 100 points wink.png

It is obvious now that above scenario did not play out - but if, and this is big if, interest rates start going up in earnest, that scenario will come true. Low interest enabled bybacks and that was the fuel for this rally.

 

when I will become less bearish - well, I am not very bearish now, for example I covered my dow short at breakeven today @19200, but constantly looking for short entry. I think risk/reward is huge. This whole house of cards is close to falling apart.

time will tell smile.png

 

like i said before,

 

snowballs chance in hell 19200 breaks



#10 Geomean

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Posted 06 December 2016 - 04:21 PM

We could face about 2 months of hard to trade chop with more new highs in some indices before any significant downward move, but if the DJIA doesn't overlap the 8/13 18688 high by mid Jan.a hard push higher before Feb becomes more likely. Closes below the early Nov lows invalidates those roadmaps. The top in NDX might be in, but it's thrust target is substantially higher. 

 

TDSEQ 13's sell signals are printing or ready to print in some monthly and weekly charts, and 12's in others  and we are going to enter the 40 week cycle high window in mid Jan-mid Feb, so that is the timeframe that appears more likely for a significant trend exhaustion.  The low in early Nov was the 40 week cycle low so it will still be exerting upward force until then.

 

A low below the early Nov lows before the the projected 40 week cycle high would suggest that the cycle analysts opining that some very long term cycles are now exerting significant downward force are correct.  


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