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57% STILL OUT OF THE MKT jump in bears

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#1 da_cheif

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Posted 08 December 2016 - 11:01 AM

AAII Survey Results for Week Ending 12/7/2016
Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.


HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 38.5%
?
BULLISH
43.1%
-0.7 Percentage point
change from
last week

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 31.0%
?
NEUTRAL
30.4%
-0.7 Percentage point
change from
last week

HISTORICAL AVERAGE: 30.5%
?
BEARISH
26.5%
+1.4 Percentage point
change from
last week



#2 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 08 December 2016 - 12:53 PM

 

Not particularly Bullish, but not Bearish, either.

 

NAAIM is showing 75% of advisors 90% or more long. None short. Most are 100% or more than 100% long.

 

I recognized that too many are fighting what is a pretty Bullish market, but there's not a long-term wall of Bearishness behind this thing, either. Plenty of room to rally, but after the end of the year, we may have some shorter term weakness.

 

M


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#3 Chilidawgz

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Posted 08 December 2016 - 01:20 PM

managers.gif


Anything can happen...what's happening now?
No one can forecast the future. No one.
 
All stocks (ETF's) are BAD...unless they go up - William O'Neil
When The Time Comes To Buy or Sell, You Won't Want To - Walter Deemer
 
 

#4 da_cheif

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Posted 08 December 2016 - 01:31 PM

managers.gif

do ur dd.....off the low of 2003 naaim bullish number got to over 90% 3 month after the low....the market went up 4 more years eh



#5 da_cheif

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Posted 08 December 2016 - 01:32 PM

 

Not particularly Bullish, but not Bearish, either.

 

NAAIM is showing 75% of advisors 90% or more long. None short. Most are 100% or more than 100% long.

 

I recognized that too many are fighting what is a pretty Bullish market, but there's not a long-term wall of Bearishness behind this thing, either. Plenty of room to rally, but after the end of the year, we may have some shorter term weakness.

 

M

i have a near term projection to dow 21100  fwiw



#6 Douglas

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Posted 08 December 2016 - 03:38 PM

If you want to see a crazy contrarian sentiment figure, take a look at Market Vane's Bond Sentiment Survey which as of last week sat at 62% bulls despite the recent absolute blood bath in bonds.  These guys are in total denial that the 35 year old bond bull market could ever take a serious breather.  Their steadfast faith would appear to be pretty bearish for bonds out into next year.

 

Regards,

Douglas



#7 da_cheif

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Posted 08 December 2016 - 03:56 PM

interest rates will explode with the exploding economy.... the market is in the early stages of discounting all that     ...short the bonds from 170



#8 gm_general

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Posted 08 December 2016 - 05:02 PM

Welcome to CAPE Canaveral (now 29). Note the similar slope in each prior CAPE deflation.

 

 

 

 



#9 da_cheif

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Posted 08 December 2016 - 07:31 PM

Welcome to CAPE Canaveral (now 29). Note the similar slope in each prior CAPE deflation.

 

 

 

 

u drew the slope lines to fit the chart......prechter did that all the time ......schiller the perma bear does that all the time with his cape charts   besides fa and ta dont mix



#10 da_cheif

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Posted 08 December 2016 - 07:33 PM

Welcome to CAPE Canaveral (now 29). Note the similar slope in each prior CAPE deflation.

 

 

 

 

draw a line across the rising tops ....thats where its goin  ...lines rule