22 replies to this topic

[lawdog]

3 bulls to 11 bears? so is this the time for the turn that Mark suggests could be, based on ability of the board to get it right at turns? Or do we need to see 1 to 13 or 0 to 14? ( I'm not putting words in Mark's mouth, just posing the question, "Is this enough bearishness here to call a turn?") I saw a lot of shorting and liquidation yesterday (how does that happen and yet the market advance?). We are so afraid sometimes of all-time highs.

 

My analysis suggests the poll reflects the feeling out there in the trading and investing community that this rally cannot last, which aids me in my decision to hold my long positions. I am intrigued by the idea of levels of resistance when we are hitting ATH's. this site consists of experienced traders, so  we should get it right at turning points, but how many bears is enough and how many are just a good fade?

 

I cast my vote with the minority. Maybe all the bears get vindicated today, but I imagine they weren't all long up until this morning's opening and did not enter their short positions at the market on opening, so they have missed out on a wonderful advance, and as I have written before, if I miss a good move, as I have often done and will certainly do again in the near future, I can never get that opportunity back.

 

Some will say the sample is too small to have any relevance, but Mark (Oexchaos), whom we universally recognize as a very smart guy (trade against him at great risk), obviously believes it is worthwhile, otherwise he wouldn't have it posted. It is a minor indicator to me, but I believe it is helpful and supports my analysis from other indicators that this rally is widely disbelieved.

 

I would love to see a one year chart of the FF sample against a backdrop of the indices. I believe that a chart of the FF poll for the last 12 months would show the FF poll to be better as a contrary indicator and that I would do better following the lead of the mom and pop investors at AAII than following the lead of the FF poll. Perhaps someone has this charted to prove me wrong.

 

 

[brucekeller]

I forgot to vote. I'm still bullish.

[lawdog]

let's all resolve to vote! the poll might become more representative. I hereby pledge to vote every day that is feasible for me to do so. even if we could double to 30 votes, that might help us all.

[lawdog]

NAZ 100 getting a little frothy this a.m.; taking some off the table.

[thoughtpwr]

The CALL spreads I had or have sold over the last day are beginning to crumble HAS, KSS, JWN. This has rescued me as I entered HAS too early. 

Their weakness is encouraging to a index short soon.

 

I see the first signs of being able to short the IWM or EEM today as the IWM has filled the gap created earlier today and is weaker than SPY. It has been under the 80 min MOV and is approaching it for a potential back kiss. This is where I would normally short it IF it is rejected at that MOV back touch per Mr Dev. However, I think it is too dangerous to short here and would not short it until it is below the 8 hr MOV at 137.8.  I want to see vxx start to climb as it is in process of turning.  It is still too bullish to commit until then, but I believe we are close to a short term top for a low going into the FED mtg.

Edited by thoughtpwr, 09 December 2016 - 12:15 PM.

[thoughtpwr]

IWM rejected by 80 min MOV, and SPY looks like its trying to roll over, but not close to shorting in my book. I noticed IWM went down to the 8 hr MOV and bounced off, we will see who wins this battle, I still think a print of 137.8 is needed to get bearish, and VXX hasn't really turned yet.

[lawdog]

I think you are on to something. But this market may have the way of surprising us with continued strength. I have cut positions from 75% to 65%, but there certainly are some red flags waiving in my face. Keep in mind that overbought markets can always become more overbought. I am going to be patient today. If I had to bet (oh, I have bet!) I would say we will go higher to the close. The perfect setup would be strong close, people get bulled up over the weekend, open the indices higher on Monday, then we let them take us out. But now that I have written this, it won't happen. 

[thoughtpwr]

lawdog;  I was thinking the same thing about waiting to make my move on the close if buying strength didn't come in. This make is and outside day down or engulfing in many cases, which can be bearish as well.

[thoughtpwr]

We hit 137.8 and the first thing it does is bounce off that level.  Am looking for it to challenge 80 min MOV one more time before rolling over, we we will see. VXX still no movement, which means no selloff.

[thoughtpwr]

IWM sailed though 80 min MOV and if it can come back and get support, at 80 min MOV; its ready to go again. VXX continues to make new lows, so no short and now I have to worry about my call shorts as they start to rebound. Unless VXX picks up in the next couple of hours, and IWM takes out 137.8 again, doesn't look too bearish. Close should be interesting.