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FF Poll very beared up


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#11 lawdog

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Posted 09 December 2016 - 02:27 PM

Yes, I am looking for a strong close and a strong open Monday, then will be looking for setups, but we must not underestimate the power of this move. I added back some of my position, going from 65% to 70% long.



#12 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 09 December 2016 - 03:17 PM

Sentiment like this is NOT a Sell, but without it you almost can't make a top. 9+ out of 10 times you can't make a top without this type of message board sentiment.

 

Of course, that's also in the context of a FL/FS Buy signal.

 

My call was chop today that probably closes modestly higher.

 

Let's see how it plays out.

 

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#13 lawdog

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Posted 09 December 2016 - 03:49 PM

Sentiment like this is NOT a Sell, but without it you almost can't make a top. 9+ out of 10 times you can't make a top without this type of message board sentiment.

 

Of course, that's also in the context of a FL/FS Buy signal.

 

 

 

M

 

So in the world of philosophy and logic, we would say a highly bearish poll is necessary but not sufficient to call a top. So today's 3/11 (bulls/bears) gets one's attention, but we need to look at other sentiment measures, momentum, etc. to turn a bearish FF poll into a sell.

 

Does such a poll result help as a contrarian indicator where other measures are not suggesting a top?

 

It would really be great to run some charts on this: you could run one with each poll number as a raw number, then as a percent of all respondents including neutral, then bull/bulls + bears and bears/bulls + bears; it would certainly be interesting to see the long-term performance. Also, I would give fully long 2 points and partially long 1 point, then fully short 2 points and partially short 1 point.

 

If anyone out there has the time on their hands, it would be an interesting project. 



#14 Harapa

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Posted 09 December 2016 - 04:09 PM

It would really be great to run some charts on this:

http://stockcharts.c...r=1481317717136


My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. All posted trades are fake (aka. paper) trades.


#15 lawdog

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Posted 09 December 2016 - 06:25 PM

 

It would really be great to run some charts on this:

http://stockcharts.c...r=1481317717136

 

That's great. Thanks for that. Do you know who these people are? Are they like an experienced Wall Street crowd, similar to this board? 

 

I will spend some time with this chart over the weekend and see if it is helpful.



#16 lawdog

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Posted 09 December 2016 - 06:27 PM

One problem, at least for me, with Harapa's chart attached as per above is that it is only weekly, whereas we get the FF poll every day.



#17 Harapa

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Posted 09 December 2016 - 06:44 PM

 

 

It would really be great to run some charts on this:

http://stockcharts.c...r=1481317717136

 

That's great. Thanks for that. Do you know who these people are? Are they like an experienced Wall Street crowd, similar to this board? 

 

I will spend some time with this chart over the weekend and see if it is helpful.

 

The data is from this board. Mark, please correct me if I am wrong.


My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. All posted trades are fake (aka. paper) trades.


#18 Harapa

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Posted 09 December 2016 - 06:46 PM

One problem, at least for me, with Harapa's chart attached as per above is that it is only weekly, whereas we get the FF poll every day.

You can change time frame to daily. This is free chart.

http://stockcharts.c...r=1481327091949

Edit: You are right sentiment is plotted as weekly.


Edited by Harapa, 09 December 2016 - 06:52 PM.

My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. All posted trades are fake (aka. paper) trades.


#19 lawdog

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Posted 10 December 2016 - 07:15 AM

Thanks, Harapa. my observations of the chart, whomever the responders may be: their highest bullish position, by far, in the past 12 months, was the final week of 2015, right as the Jan 2016 correction was beginning, a very bad call. The group hung in there during the plunge, but then quickly became relatively more bearish during the strong advance of feb., march and april, likely missing the meat of that advance, assuming their sentiment matched their actual positioning in the market. for the year, they were most bullish during the rolling top of the third quarter, the worst time of the year to be long, other than january when they were even more (wrongly) bullish. the one halfway decent call they made was when they got mildly bullish during the late october decline (although they were early here, probably suffering through the mild 2-week decline of late october), but failing to fully benefit from the post-election rally when they became more bearish than bullish after the first week of this current rally, and they were very bearish immediately preceding and now during this next leg of the post-election rally.  so my analysis suggests this group, wherever they come from, are  prone to 1) failing to get properly cautious at tops, 2) pretty good at getting bullish at bottoms, albeit early, and 3) unable to remain bullish in an upward-trending market. i see the extreme bearishness of the last two weeks as a contrary indicator, signalling a good chance for continuance of this rally.

 

whomever these people are, they are really quite terrible at predicting the market. 

 

thanks for alerting us to this chart.



#20 lawdog

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Posted 10 December 2016 - 07:28 AM

more on the stockchart linked by Harapa: this could not be a chart from the weekly forecast from this board because last week's FF weekly reading was a neutral 46/54. i just might take a few hours in the archives and see what predictive value we might find in our FF daily and weekly polls.