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#1 NAV

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Posted 11 December 2016 - 09:21 PM

Since the correction from 12/3, there's not been a sell signal even on 1-min charts. It's hard to short a market that strong and make money. Saying "This is not a top" is as much a prophecy statement as "This is a top". Anything can happen in the market anytime. But as a trader the risk/reward is always in the direction of the trend in one's timeframe. 

 

It's not complicated folks. To short we need to break at least the nearest pivot (SPX 1242) and have a retracement failure. And that requires time on the part of market and patience on the part of trader. 

 

Until then just buy the friggin' dips. 

 

I exited at SPX 1240 and planning to re-enter on or after the Fed day.


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#2 da_cheif

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Posted 11 December 2016 - 09:55 PM

i believe you



#3 LMF

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Posted 12 December 2016 - 12:29 AM

The successful test down near the 200 week MA back in February on SPX was a huge bullish indication.  It takes major problems with the markets like 9-11 and the problems in 2008 to get it below that MA.  And the 1987 crash wasn't enough to get below that MA.  After the test in February, it was less than 6 months later before new all time highs on SPX.  It's most likely going to take years before the next significant top forms.....it's not even on the horizon yet.  The SPX rising channel from the 2009 lows is in place and its not even close to the lower rail of the channel. Its the bullish time of the year between November and May of next year.....the bias is up.     



#4 gm_general

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Posted 12 December 2016 - 06:13 AM

Since the correction from 12/3, there's not been a sell signal even on 1-min charts. It's hard to short a market that strong and make money. Saying "This is not a top" is as much a prophecy statement as "This is a top". Anything can happen in the market anytime. But as a trader the risk/reward is always in the direction of the trend in one's timeframe. 

 

It's not complicated folks. To short we need to break at least the nearest pivot (SPX 1242) and have a retracement failure. And that requires time on the part of market and patience on the part of trader. 

 

Until then just buy the friggin' dips. 

 

I exited at SPX 1240 and planning to re-enter on or after the Fed day.

 

I take it you meant 2240 - if I woke up and SPX was 1240 I must be in a parallel universe. :)



#5 SemiBizz

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Posted 12 December 2016 - 09:01 AM

SOX was down on Friday... Nasdaq Futures getting whacked this morning...

 

All about sector selection.

 

I don't think anybody is going to get rich shorting the SPX yet, especially with crude flying.


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#6 SemiBizz

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Posted 12 December 2016 - 09:40 AM

Strong opening volume... Nasdaq.


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#7 SemiBizz

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Posted 12 December 2016 - 10:20 AM

SOX down MORE THAN 1% so far...

 

Yep, if all you look at every day is the SPX...

 

You are missing a lot.


Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics


#8 da_cheif

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Posted 12 December 2016 - 10:23 AM

i love the lagging sox     it did the same thing all thru the 90s    ....eventually it caught up....the sox has allways been there to hook the bears



#9 da_cheif

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Posted 12 December 2016 - 10:30 AM

some look at lagging indexes others look at leading indexes of the broadest  measures of market activity the VLE and of course the leading weekly AD line of the entire market........whats not to love .....the weekly ad line actually bottomed in march 2000 and has been going straight up ever since



#10 SemiBizz

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Posted 12 December 2016 - 10:45 AM

Nasdaq going down on STRONGER HOURLY VOLUME - little bit unusual for a Monday morning...

 

There's nothing here to stop a test of 5400.  5410 last low.


Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics