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Fed day looks to me like 50 up vs 30 down


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#1 risk_management

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Posted 13 December 2016 - 08:03 PM

Miners are saying up but gold is yet to clear downtrend line.  I highly doubt they'll produce anything other than their usual data dependent statement and considering how much negativity has been built into gold price, resolution should be up.  Regardless of the initial spike.  And yes, there is still that USD/JPY wall at 116.

 

p.s.  I am wrong often. 


Edited by risk_management, 13 December 2016 - 08:06 PM.


#2 Smithy

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Posted 13 December 2016 - 10:41 PM

In the last 5 months 30 year rates have increased by 50% from 2.1% to 3.2%, as an example.

IMHO the Fed has no choice but to follow the interest rate market which is far bigger than it can control. So I expect 0.25% raise.

 

They are caught between two evils: the Scylla of rising rates and the Charybdis of debt payments.

 

So as rates continue  to rise, the Fed is juggling dynamite.


Edited by Smithy, 13 December 2016 - 10:41 PM.


#3 risk_management

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Posted 14 December 2016 - 09:20 AM

I am with you smithy. Btw, downtrend line is busted. At least on the hourly charts.

#4 senorBS

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Posted 14 December 2016 - 09:49 AM

I am with you smithy. Btw, downtrend line is busted. At least on the hourly charts.

of note both NEM and ABX this mornin hit the highest levels since Nov 10, key is whether this is a breakout or we just ended an abc corrective rally - no easy answer

 

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#5 Russ

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Posted 14 December 2016 - 11:35 AM

I am with you smithy. Btw, downtrend line is busted. At least on the hourly charts.

gold's hourly downtrend line is not really busted, gold poked over it a little but not a punch through. gdx has a nice wedge that it is at the top of now, but wedges can break down too. based on my oscillators predicted low from last summer, gold and gold stocks should go up now though.


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#6 dharma

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Posted 14 December 2016 - 11:53 AM

In the last 5 months 30 year rates have increased by 50% from 2.1% to 3.2%, as an example.
IMHO the Fed has no choice but to follow the interest rate market which is far bigger than it can control. So I expect 0.25% raise.
 
They are caught between two evils: the Scylla of rising rates and the Charybdis of debt payments.
 
So as rates continue  to rise, the Fed is juggling dynamite.

EXACTLY this reality is what drew me to gold in the 1st place. gann was very bearish the market in years that ended in 7, to top
that off we have venus going retrograde, which marked the 01 and 09 financial crises. i look for the broad market to make its top
in the 1st quarter. gold is bottoming/bottomed here , but i think this low will be revisited next month. then the 77 fractal
comes into play. its way to early in the cycle to point arrows to pluto. of course you can but it will be awhile till the market
accommodates those arrows.
i believe the miners are more heavily biased towards inflation. so they made their lows a month ago. and then the white rabbit
() refused to follow the yellow metal we are switching from deflation to a more
inflationary environment =stagflation. and rate hikes are part of it. this will force the banks out of the fed and into lending
their qe money balls. then its game on money velocity changes direction

dharma

Edited by dharma, 14 December 2016 - 11:58 AM.


#7 risk_management

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Posted 15 December 2016 - 07:42 PM

 

I am with you smithy. Btw, downtrend line is busted. At least on the hourly charts.

gold's hourly downtrend line is not really busted, gold poked over it a little but not a punch through. gdx has a nice wedge that it is at the top of now, but wedges can break down too. based on my oscillators predicted low from last summer, gold and gold stocks should go up now though.

 

 

 

It wasn't.  Chart was set to feb contract instead of continuous.  Ugh.

 

RE:p.s.  I am wrong often.

 

Told you guys.  Fade me and make a fortune.  Here is your next chance.  I got stopped out but reentered today at the close at 1131.9.  Maybe I rushed in but I see potential for inverse H and S, and with BOJ on deck, I wanted to be in.