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WAVE 2 Sentiment at 29 yr low?


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#1 senorBS

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Posted 26 December 2016 - 09:39 AM

It is often said sentiment at a wave 2 bottom can be as much or more negative then at the actual price low, if one looks at this chart and short video of the 21-day DSI vs gold then right now it]s 21-day MA is at the lowest level (most bearish) in its 29 yr history. This kind of stuff guarantees nothing but given its history and how prices react when these levels are reached - would you rather be a buyer or seller? That's not even counting all the other stuff that is suggesting a key secondary (Wave 2) low very possibly forming here, we see

 

BSing away

 

Senpr



#2 senorBS

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Posted 26 December 2016 - 09:54 AM

oops, here the link;

 

http://investmentwat...up-for-a-rally/



#3 dharma

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Posted 26 December 2016 - 11:21 AM

yes, and folks are out there pointing arrows below 1k, who knows it could get there but its not very likely. a trader has a bag of
tools and he puts all his studies together and hopefully makes an elephant gun. here is another tool . supply.
https://www.bloomber...-explaining-why
these 5
charts are not put together by some gold bug pointing arrows to pluto. its a factual study done by bloomberg
gold is valuable because it is rare.
1 chart one shows an 85% decline in the last decade. its not just during pds where the price is falling 06-11 saw soaring gold
prices and yet supply continued to fall. i said the other day that at these prices some mines will be shuttered
2 nothing to add to chart 2 the last 5 yrs have forced miners to cut capex spending as is typical in a commodity cycle

3/4/5 shows we are at or approaching peak gold production. this does not guarantee a bottom or any thing else for that matter. but at
some point it will exacerbate price i believe the majors have been running their best reserves the last 5 yrs and their stocks are
low at some point they will be forced to either explore or buy reserves. i think it will be the latter. the junior space will
experience a feeding frenzy
its all part of the big picture. the truth is there are mountains of debt .
in the sector there is great fear.
i remain in steady nibbling buy mode.
when u see bugs tripping over themselves to point arrows to the basement its another indication
dharma

Edited by dharma, 26 December 2016 - 11:23 AM.


#4 SemiBizz

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Posted 26 December 2016 - 12:57 PM

As I said earlier, still too many optimists out there...

 

The bull doesn't end until the bear is exhausted...

 

Sentiment will reach the low when the # gold "bottom" posts dry up and everyone has accepted that there is no hope...


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#5 senorBS

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Posted 26 December 2016 - 01:35 PM

As I said earlier, still too many optimists out there...

 

The bull doesn't end until the bear is exhausted...

 

Sentiment will reach the low when the # gold "bottom" posts dry up and everyone has accepted that there is no hope...

I disagree strongly about "too many optimists" as that chart revealed, but all we have our opinions and take our positions. IMO we are seeing as good a risk/reward trade as we saw last Dec/Jan in the miners, we see

 

Senor


Edited by senorBS, 26 December 2016 - 01:36 PM.


#6 Russ

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Posted 26 December 2016 - 04:42 PM

One problem noted by Rodgerdodger is this, but a short term rally could happen perhaps...

 

2016_20_year_COT.jpg


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#7 risk_management

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Posted 26 December 2016 - 04:57 PM

It's really bleak out there already.  Perhaps it can get even bleaker but what will stock market do in that scenario?  Shoot even higher?



#8 dougie

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Posted 26 December 2016 - 05:29 PM

1025? Lower?
Shoukd bounce first

#9 Smithy

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Posted 26 December 2016 - 06:25 PM

Dharma, I've said this before but annual mine production has little to do with supply and demand for gold because the above ground stocks are vast by comparison. What matters is how those stocks are moved around. So the recent figures posted here on  how both Russia and China have both muliplied their holding by at least 3 times since 2009 are a much bigger deal, helping to put a floor under the price. 



#10 Russ

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Posted 26 December 2016 - 06:39 PM

The lease rates are very important, last winter lease rates shot up before the big gold rally, they are not that high now.

 

 

Nonetheless Bullish Sentiment is the lowest it has been in 40 years according to this author... http://seekingalpha....fc1d8&dr=1#alt2


Edited by Russ, 26 December 2016 - 06:46 PM.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/