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Limited upside for now


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#11 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 06 January 2017 - 01:02 PM

Looking at a 10 day Put/Call Ratios they are overall mildly bullish at the time ( that is they are closer to a buy signal than a sell )...    I use a formula to see how much SPX is overbought from PE vs Growth point of view...    It has changed from 25% overbought to only 10% overbought in the last two weeks..   My GDP formula has increased from 2.4 to 2.9 %.   Increase in Auto and New Home Sales are the reason why the overbought % has dropped...   I was expecting them to be worse...     With the increase GDP and lending the market can definitely move higher......

 

For Sentiment - I look at Rydex Assets...   It shows that individuals over the last week have been pulling out of bullish positions and moving into cash...     They are not putting $$$ toward bearish positions at this time...  Sentiment to me seems Bullish enough that it should give resistance to the market heading too much higher..

 

Barry



#12 lawdog

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Posted 09 January 2017 - 07:46 PM

The last two days have not been good. Poor breadth, and lots of other indicators are extended. I give the market one more decent day up. Maybe it manages to tread water for a week or two, but, as I started with this post, the upside is very limited. I thought we could make 2300, but with losing 8 spx points today, 2300 is a bridge too far for now unless we get a trend day that runs in some bears. At this point, it's hardly worth the risk. There will be much better times this year to be long this market than right now.

 

 

I agree with Barry above, sentiment is signalling a market that needs to do some correcting very soon. Momentum has been carrying us higher, but I think the market is figuratively now running on fumes. 

 

Here's my bet: the Dow crosses below 19,000 before it crosses above 20,000. There's probably no one following this post now anyway, but I say we go down 800 dow points before we go up 200 dow points. Any takers? Anyone even looking at this? Friday night I would have said otherwise, but the market is really sputtering now. Just a friendly paper wager. I hope I lose the bet tomorrow so I can get out without losing  my 2017 gains. 



#13 lawdog

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Posted 10 January 2017 - 05:53 AM

so, I withdraw my wager that we cross below 19000 before we cross 20,000. i think we still have a shot at spx 2300 in January which would likely take the dji over 20k. but not much mo0re for now. but no one is reading this anyway.



#14 Len

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Posted 10 January 2017 - 09:58 AM

lawdog, I think.  a lot of people  follow you here.



#15 lawdog

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Posted 10 January 2017 - 11:19 AM

I just hope not in the same way as you know who, strictly for entertainment value!

 

lawdog, I think.  a lot of people  follow you here.