20 replies to this topic

[kinga200]

From my 15min end of day gives it a 70% probability.

[lawdog]

so how many points down do you expect? do you cover the shorts to lock in the gain, or do you expect a trend day down?

[opinionated]

I think we have a reasonable decline in the next two weeks, But it will not be when everyone expects it. And I think a lot of people jumped in at the high Friday.

[lawdog]

I think we have a reasonable decline in the next two weeks, But it will not be when everyone expects it. And I think a lot of people jumped in at the high Friday.

 

when you say a lot of people jumped in on Friday, remember someone had to sell.

 

second, although I am sanguine about the immediate prospects for the market, the put/call ratios do not show exuberance by this typically wrong at the turns bunch; also, Rydex numbers show quite a bit of retail liquidation on Friday; also the TRIN (Arms Index) on the NYSE was 1.19, so volume was in the decliners, so I disagree with your statement that a lot of (dumb money) people jumped in on Friday. The best advances begin with a lot of (smart money) people jumping in. But in defense of retail Rydex, they do sometimes cut back on the cusp of a quick drop, so by no means do I rule out a gap down on Monday, but I don't think such things are predictable. as Yogi Berra said, "it's hard to make predictions, especially about the future."

 

With that said, I think the market has a good shot to add 1% this week, but I feel it needs a breather to get in a position to add much more. that "breather" might be a consolidation with little damage to the indices, or it could take 3-5% off the averages without too much difficulty. If we get that 1% advance from current levels, I will probably cut back all or a good portion of my positions, because I do agree we are at or very near to an interim peak, and who cares if it is "the" top. If we do happen to gap lower, then I have to decide to buy on the gap, or sell on expectation of the gap preceeding a horrible downtrend day which really shakes up the bulls. All I can do is see what actually happens (usually different than what I expected!) and manage my money well, pulling back where I don't have a feel for what is happening, and pressing my bets when I'm in tune.

 

But what got this started was my skeptical response to, 15 minutes after the Friday close, KingA calling for a big gap down on Monday opening. Timing markets is much more difficult than seeing a divergence here or there and calling for a drop.

[opinionated]

 

Highest long exposure in RUT calls right now, and shortest on VIX right now....  What more is it your looking for?

 

Hmmmm

 

Would post a chart but this new set up has me stumped

[kinga200]

It should get interesting...

[da_cheif]

It should get interesting...

If i heard this once i heard it a million times.....the next person to utter "it should get interest"    will be kept or put on moderation for a very long time.    -vbg-

[dasein]

small gap down so far!

[SemiBizz]

Some Big Boys just joined your team...

 

GS Downgrades KO and PG !

 

[gameover]

Some Big Boys just joined your team...

 

GS Downgrades KO and PG !

 

 

 

are you serious?

 

b-berg run GS gives sells on these 2

 

simply means they

 

are BUYS