17 replies to this topic

[kssmibotm]

We're already in a recession...have been for the last 9 months.

 

Fib

 

On what basis?  Every indicator I am aware of says no recession in the next 6-9 months.

[fib_1618]

 

We're already in a recession...have been for the last 9 months.

 

Fib

 

On what basis?  Every indicator I am aware of says no recession in the next 6-9 months.

 

 

Is there, or has there ever been, an economic indicator that has ever predicted a recession before it happened?

 

Nope...as everything fundamental is provided in arrears...after it's already happened.

 

You can use the fall consolidation in stock prices as one indicator, but being that I run 3 businesses, one of which is about 3-4 months ahead of stock market activity which, in turn, is 3-4 months ahead of the economy, the latest rolling recession started back in June 2016...the previous one began in January of 2015.

 

Fib

[uburack]

I own a retail store (So Cal). My 4q was not so bad as I have built up repeat clientele that minimize my losses. But the center I'm located in, as well as other retailers I network with, are doing horrible the last 2 years. People who have been in business 20-30 years are saying "worst ever".

 

Unless your business is somehow tied to RE finance (or postal services), this is the exception.

 

More stores closing down (Macys, Sears, Kmart, etc....) malls are dead. Market is barely waking up to the reality of the Potemkin village.

 

2c

[OEXCHAOS]

My sister is in higher end specialty retail here in the midwest. She had a pretty good year this year.

 

M

[SemiBizz]

Well, there's retail, and there's really HUGE RETAIL...

 

Peter Thiel says the age of Apple is over

[fib_1618]

Well, there's retail, and there's really HUGE RETAIL...

 

Peter Thiel says the age of Apple is over

 

The biggest mistake that Apple ever made was not buying out Netflix.

 

Fib

[SemiBizz]

That would involve RISK - this crew running the place doesn't understand how to do it...

 

It takes gamblers with the passion of Steve Jobs to go "all in".

[MaryAM]

If you look at real unemployment - including everyone who is no longer in the labor force or looking for a job because there are none - we are over 23% unemployment.  All of the past administrations job growth as been in part time employment for the most part - as employers don't want to have to offer health insurance.  Money Multiplier is lower than it was during the great depression OF THE 30'S and the velocity of money is very low.   Depressions are simply recessions that last more than 12 months.  Great depressions are recessions that last longer than 18 months.  I voted 2017 but I believe we never came out of the great recession of 2008-9.  Housing sales that have been contracted are often now being nulled and put back on the market - because - lets see the excuses, too high, problems with inspections, loan falls through ---- how about robo signing and THEY CAN'T CLEAR THE TITLES because the foreclosures were not legally done.  The trade deficit is ugly.  Housing starts are abysmal. For that matter all economic data reported are suspect in that false assumptions are more often than not, used to calculate the data.   I have been predicting  hyper deflation for some time here.  We have already seen the inflation.  It has to contract - and with that the US debt cannot and will not be serviced much less retired - but it will make pretty wallpaper.  We have to hope for a deflationary depression when it occurs because hyper inflationary inflationary depressions ALWAYS lead to the overthrow of government.