7 replies to this topic

[kinga200]

My last end of day signal resulted in a gap down but was suprised how small.  I have another end of day signal for a gap down.  But again, this only tells me there is a 70% probability we will have one.  As well it doesnt tell me how low or large.

[thoughtpwr]

Thx, for info.  Not sure what your signal is, but I would be expecting that as well, however, this time is for real down movement after the last three days of drifting lower; based upon formation and subtle strength of gold stocks.

[fib_1618]

My last end of day signal resulted in a gap down but was surprised how small.  I have another end of day signal for a gap down.  But again, this only tells me there is a 70% probability we will have one.  As well it doesnt tell me how low or large.

 

We know that you're using a 15 minute time scale when you make these calls, but what specific index are you looking at?

 

Fib

[kinga200]

 

My last end of day signal resulted in a gap down but was surprised how small.  I have another end of day signal for a gap down.  But again, this only tells me there is a 70% probability we will have one.  As well it doesnt tell me how low or large.

 

We know that you're using a 15 minute time scale when you make these calls, but what specific index are you looking at?

 

Fib

 

Hi Fib,

 

It's not the index as it is the model I developed. I have been working on this over 1 1/2 years.  Meaning using different indicators but most importantly finding the right parameters for these indicators that I have in my model.  Any timeframe, 15Min, 30Min etc can be used.  I just found that the 15 Min gives me the greatest probability. It averages about 6 trades per month.  As I only take the strongest signals.  I will say, if the signal is correct I move the model to a longer timeframe to catch the meat of the trend. But usually I am in the trade about 1 -2 days as I use the leverage ETFs, both long and short.

[kinga200]

 

My last end of day signal resulted in a gap down but was surprised how small.  I have another end of day signal for a gap down.  But again, this only tells me there is a 70% probability we will have one.  As well it doesnt tell me how low or large.

 

We know that you're using a 15 minute time scale when you make these calls, but what specific index are you looking at?

 

Fib

 

I dont have to tell you when you are building models finding the right mix is very hard.  At one point I had about 9 indicators but ended up with only 3 for the model.  AND backtesting hundredes of diffrent mixes, etc. takes for ever. 

[pedro]

From watching mostly hourly charts, I can suggest that when the MACD is on a sell signal (with signal line drifting lower), and especially when that MACD itself fails to manage a (buy) crossover later in the day, you routinely get gaps down at the next open, as traders are convinced by the crossover failure to drop their offer prices in the next session.

 

I don't used the MACD much, but its helpful in terms of predicting next day gap moves in a trending market.

[redfoliage2]

The trump rally is currently under the pressure:

https://www.theguard...russia-contacts

[dasein]

personally I cant believe they are doing this to Trump when thanks to Clinton and Harvard and their lovefest with Boris Y in the 90s - the oligarchs were made from the losses of the common Russian people who had no food and were pressured to sell the "shares" for next to nothing to these carpetbaggers. Clinton made the Russian Oligarchs and he made a lot of big businessmen rich - of couse some were later killed in the forests of the Russian Far East:)