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My trading plan right now


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#171 lawdog

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Posted 21 February 2017 - 09:41 AM

bot up to 36% long now.



#172 lawdog

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Posted 21 February 2017 - 10:06 AM

up to 55% long now. last tranche I paid 2.75% more to get in than when I sold out around spx 2325. that hurts. i hate chasing a market like this. that's all the buying for now. could this be the top, suckering me in? hope not.



#173 lawdog

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Posted 21 February 2017 - 03:38 PM

see no problems here. staying long at 55%. the only reason i am not at 80% long is because i'm chicken.



#174 lawdog

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Posted 21 February 2017 - 07:05 PM

Anyone out there reading this, I recommend you take everything I write for a while with a grain of salt (as though you weren't doing that anyway). There's a reason I'm only at 55% and it's because I don't trust this market. And that's probably why it goes higher. I just don't feel good about it. And maybe it just needs a few down days to clear things out, but my guess is that today's gains could be wiped out in the first 30 minutes of trading tomorrow. It looks right now like a gap down. Will it gap, then bounce, then fail? Right now that's my guess. I do not want to get caught in a 2% drop here, even if that's all it is. "They" just might shake out some longs tomorrow, hoping to get something moving to the downside, so "they" can buy back below 2330 on the spx. I'm sorry for being so uncertain here. My bearishness cost me a bunch last week. But that's what the market wants me to do, forswear any bearishness, then miss a decline, even if it's just 2%. It's just not easy here if you trade. I think the key for success here for me is to keep my positions small, probably just trade one account, leaving the others flat and then I can move quickly either direction without a lot of regret or position bias. Likely to cut back from 55% long to 25%-35% sometime tomorrow. there have been better times to be long and the market has been very rewarding so far. It's like playing blackjack: when the deck is in your favor, increase your bets, but when the deck is against you, keep your bets small. I think the deck is against the bulls right now, so keep the bets small.



#175 lawdog

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Posted 22 February 2017 - 08:55 AM

looks like -6 gap down on spx. i fear the market is going to get the better of me today. will look to cut back to 35% long when/if spx recovers to only down 3 or 4 in the first hour. the mkt has done well at shaking off negative openings so we will see what it offers us. i will be trading defensively today, trying to minimize damage but take advantage where i see it. by reducing position, i can be more flexible and objective. when your position is too much for the conditions, reduce it to a more comfortable level, then you are usually more rational. i have a hard time seeing this rally ending here, but it might, even if it is just for a day or two. so reduce my longs and weather this minor squall. see what i get for chasing the market yesterday? no one can deny that the market is a bit stretched here, so tempering one's greed is a good idea. the year will serve up many opportunities for profit, so be patient. i have a feeling option players will be loading up the puts. they are not always a fade. the worst down days are often accompanied by very high put volume, so bulls, don't get too excited if you see high put/call ratios intraday. and don't think that just because the spx rallies back to even for the day it is all clear. check back. i will let you know how i am doing, but don't expect great things out of me. 



#176 lawdog

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Posted 22 February 2017 - 10:00 AM

is this all the bears have got?



#177 lawdog

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Posted 22 February 2017 - 10:10 AM

haven't pulled the trigger yet on reducing position. spx down only 4 at 10 am. maybe today will be minor consolidation and set the stage for a few more up days. spx now -5.5. if i am nervous, so are many others, suggesting more chance to rally than decline. i guess you could say i am fading myself right now.



#178 lawdog

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Posted 22 February 2017 - 10:26 AM

cut back to 40% long. got out at 2363, hod for now, so no complaints. now i have positions in only one account, so i am relaxed, unemotional and flexible.



#179 lawdog

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Posted 22 February 2017 - 10:38 AM

dealing with your emotions is critical to success. it doesn't matter how disciplined you are, you will face days where you are an emotional wreck, which leads to bad results. so take care of your psyche and your trading will improve. i feel like i am in a no-lose today: i sold out some at the high of the day so far today, so if the market drops, i am happy for getting a portion out at a good price, and if the market rises, i have enough position to still make money. i will watch as the day develops and not worry much as the market fluctuates.



#180 lawdog

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Posted 22 February 2017 - 11:00 AM

tempted to take back some of what i sold earlier. could buy back for less now. that could be greed talking.