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My trading plan right now


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#31 lawdog

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Posted 20 January 2017 - 10:31 AM

first hour, maybe a little disappointing for the bulls, basically ending the hour near the first print of the day, but certainly no reason to cut and run. for me as slightly bearish, kind of ambivalent. hope the market can show its hand so i can take a larger short position, but it's not there yet. will hold my net 23% short for now. 



#32 lawdog

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Posted 20 January 2017 - 11:00 AM

closed out the shorts i bot early. i think this market wants to run on the inauguration as long as it is uneventful. actually bot some sso. sold all my shorts; now 25% long.



#33 lawdog

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Posted 20 January 2017 - 12:33 PM

No point in staying long. No positions in trading accounts. Wish I had retained my shorts, but that's the way it goes.



#34 lawdog

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Posted 20 January 2017 - 12:57 PM

Lost my focus; the action is bearish; rebuilding my short position. 



#35 lawdog

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Posted 21 January 2017 - 01:12 PM

Really made a mess of it trading on Friday. Gave back essentially all of Thursday's gains. Lots of work for nothing. Once I took that long position and it wasn't working, I had no focus, no vision. It usually doesn't pay to get too cute, trying to make a few dollars on a trade counter to your overall plan. But that was yesterday and we have a new week ahead of us, with opportunity everywhere.

 

My overall plan remains the same: There is not much left in this bull run for now until a 3-5% correction. I am still looking for a modest pullback to spx 2245 to set up the final push to spx 2300 and dow 20k. Sentiment and momentum have been correcting, but not yet enough to give me confidence to go long for that last push. A mild pullback to 2245 area would probably be enough to provide the setup for a push to 2300. 

 

Status of accounts: 40% short, 20% long, net 20% short. Do not expect to get to more than net 40% short for now. It's just so hard to be properly positioned for the break up or down from such a narrow range. We have had six weeks now of going nowhere in the spx.



#36 12SPX

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Posted 23 January 2017 - 08:37 AM

Thanks for all the updates great reads!!



#37 lawdog

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Posted 23 January 2017 - 06:21 PM

Expecting the modest gain that started from spx 2259 to continue tomorrow. I am hoping this recovery to be small but should hold for the day. Assuming the bounce is small, I expect to add to my short position by the close on Tuesday. If the advance is stronger than 8 or 9 points, I will probably hold off adding to my short position at the close tomorrow. I removed my long position, so am now 40% short. I still hold that the decline here will be contained, probably around spx 2245, and that this may set the stage for an advance to spx 2300. If I were a less active trader, I would just retain my long position with the expectation of one more decent advance here, after which I would be expecting a 3-5% drop. Time seems to be running out on the bulls here. It is not any easy trade either way, so my positions are relatively small for now.



#38 lawdog

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Posted 24 January 2017 - 10:27 AM

closed my shorts. completely flat. expect some strength here but dont know if i want to risk it. certainly could lead to new ath in spx.



#39 lawdog

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Posted 24 January 2017 - 10:33 AM

went long 25% at spx 2269.



#40 lawdog

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Posted 24 January 2017 - 02:30 PM

Market is strong; hold onto long positions. No reason to sell.