Member
Posted 15 January 2017 - 10:41 PM
NAV,
I haven't been trading it, but I think there is no reason not too. I will be risking 7% at this level.
Such a big move in 2 months seems too fast, I would like to see some retrace first. I doubt it
is a pause to go higher. I posted internals divergence back in May 2015 right before the drop,
so don't always have to wait for the drawdown to exit.
Member
Posted 16 January 2017 - 12:00 AM
NAV,
I haven't been trading it, but I think there is no reason not too. I will be risking 7% at this level.
Such a big move in 2 months seems too fast, I would like to see some retrace first. I doubt it
is a pause to go higher. I posted internals divergence back in May 2015 right before the drop,
so don't always have to wait for the drawdown to exit.
That system requires a 1200 points STOP on DOW (about 6%) to trade it effectively. One has to decide at the outset if they have the tolerance for such drawdowns, before investing for long term. Most long term systems require STOPs of that size.
Member
Posted 16 January 2017 - 10:20 AM
You have to be on top of the central banking news since the market turns on a dime on these announcements. There were at least three such announcements at the last major bottom in January 2016. The 2011 post-QE2 low was made when the Fed pre-announced Operation Twist 2 which was almost immediately followed with QE3.
The 2016 bottom probably would've been made without the intervention. It appeared to be the result of a confluence of two one-time events, the US treasury borrowing 500 billion dollars in the two months after the debt ceiling was raised and the foreign governments raising cash at the end of the year to plug the budget gaps caused by the crash in the price of crude. The net supply of debt exceeded 180 billion dollars per month of quantitative easing.
Edited by Data, 16 January 2017 - 10:27 AM.
Member
Posted 16 January 2017 - 12:24 PM
CLK,
You ask for opinions... Then attack when one is given? What's up with that? Harapa and NAV are excellent trend traders and agree or not... Well Point made
Edited by opinionated, 16 January 2017 - 12:25 PM.
