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Does it strike anyone else as weird....


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#11 fib_1618

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Posted 18 January 2017 - 04:58 PM

 

 

Does it strike anyone else as weird that the ITBM has been on a confirmed Sell for a month while the Cumulative A/D Volume has been on a steadfast Buy since mid November?

 

Weird.

 

M

Well the market has been consolidating in a very narrow range for over a month. How did it look during another similar period.  Say from 8/5/2016 - 9/8/2016?

 

ITBM gave a sell in late July and confirmed in early August, Cumulative A/D Volume flirted with 3 sells in August, but finally only gave one in first week of Sept. So a month isn't crazy. These ought to get in synch, though, soon. I view the Cumulative A/D as more of a "condition" indicator so I guess I haven't been looking at it for confirmation.

 

I'm still not clear on what parameters you're using for these "confirmed sells" as you don't have one unless this indicator moves below the zero line. If it's above the zero line, and you're using a 20 day EMA as a crossover trigger, then you only have corrective behavior - or a hold - until the zero line is violated.

 

I'm also wondering why you would use a momentum measurement of cumulative breadth and comparing it with raw cumulative volume...wouldn't it be better to use the ITVM?

 

Fib


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#12 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 19 January 2017 - 03:42 PM

 

 

 

Does it strike anyone else as weird that the ITBM has been on a confirmed Sell for a month while the Cumulative A/D Volume has been on a steadfast Buy since mid November?

 

Weird.

 

M

Well the market has been consolidating in a very narrow range for over a month. How did it look during another similar period.  Say from 8/5/2016 - 9/8/2016?

 

ITBM gave a sell in late July and confirmed in early August, Cumulative A/D Volume flirted with 3 sells in August, but finally only gave one in first week of Sept. So a month isn't crazy. These ought to get in synch, though, soon. I view the Cumulative A/D as more of a "condition" indicator so I guess I haven't been looking at it for confirmation.

 

I'm still not clear on what parameters you're using for these "confirmed sells" as you don't have one unless this indicator moves below the zero line. If it's above the zero line, and you're using a 20 day EMA as a crossover trigger, then you only have corrective behavior - or a hold - until the zero line is violated.

 

I'm also wondering why you would use a momentum measurement of cumulative breadth and comparing it with raw cumulative volume...wouldn't it be better to use the ITVM?

 

Fib

 

 

Fib, with all due respect, I have a "confirmed sell" because I SAY I have one. My method of using the indicator is, well, mine. If I was seeking evaluation of my approach, I would provide everything I'm doing to everyone. But I'm not. I use the ITBM in one particular way, using another indicator as confirmation. It's much faster than waiting for the ITBM to cross zero. I get that the zero line was key for Carl and I know that many people use it that way. I'm not trying to get the same results that many people get, however. I don't want to discount the ITVM, either. I just selected a different tool to confirm and set of parameters and moreover, I've been fairly well pleased with it over the past couple years. 

The purpose of the original post was two fold, a) to essentially crowd source a quick read on a divergence that struck me as odd (turns out it wasn't very odd at all!), and B) generate some conversation. Which we are and that is good.

 

Philosophically, I've always been against static rules of use for any indicator. They key is to have an approach that a) works and B) engenders enough confidence that you'll actually take your trades. Moreover, it should be different enough from what others are doing (while still being grounded in reality and reason) so that there's still an edge. And this is a dynamic approach. It has to be. Things change in our markets over time. I remember when Sedge Coppock's breadth work was the cat's meow--a reliable and effective tool for decades. Eventually, it became nearly useless (I'm talking about his Timing Technique for Texas Traders).

 

Anyway, the point is, we need to be flexible and experimental as much as possible, but also disciplined.

 

Mark


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#13 dasein

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Posted 19 January 2017 - 05:41 PM

very instructive post - perhaps Harapa has the answer!


best,
klh

#14 fib_1618

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Posted 19 January 2017 - 05:48 PM

Thanks for the reply...I'm sure that there were others wondering the same thing and wanted to give you the platform to share your thoughts.

 

Fib


Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#15 NAV

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Posted 20 January 2017 - 12:23 PM

 

 

Philosophically, I've always been against static rules of use for any indicator. They key is to have an approach that a) works and cool.png engenders enough confidence that you'll actually take your trades. Moreover, it should be different enough from what others are doing (while still being grounded in reality and reason) so that there's still an edge. And this is a dynamic approach. It has to be. Things change in our markets over time. I remember when Sedge Coppock's breadth work was the cat's meow--a reliable and effective tool for decades. Eventually, it became nearly useless (I'm talking about his Timing Technique for Texas Traders).

 

Totally agree. It's all about the edge. A friend of mine used to argue that there is nothing secretive about technical methods in the markets and even if the entire world knew about his methods it would make no difference. I told him he was right about the "nothing secretive" part, but totally wrong on second part as the system would lose it's edge if the entire world knew it.

 

They had a trading club where they traded the method. After a couple of years once it became popular, he started complaining about large slippages at the time of his entries and exits. The system generated about 20 signals a month. When you added all the slippages for 20 trades (entry and exit) it was wiping out most of the profitability in the system.

 

For longer term system, slippages don't matter much, but if it's a short term system, it makes a huge difference. The secret sauce matters, not because it's a secret or something that others do not know. But, it's about the tiny edge you develop to beat others in the game. 


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

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#16 CLK

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Posted 21 January 2017 - 02:18 PM

Friday Index Put/Call signaled a big sell is coming within days to a week or so.

 

 


Edited by CLK, 21 January 2017 - 02:19 PM.


#17 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 22 January 2017 - 02:46 PM

I hope so. I'd love to get some stuff "re-set"!

 

M


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#18 CLK

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Posted 22 January 2017 - 03:54 PM

I think my chart messed up. As long as the market hasn't dropped yet, any histogram above the blue line, bands or red line

is usually a good signal. Sometimes price will go up a little first.

 

 

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