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In The Pain Trade


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#1 libertas

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Posted 19 January 2017 - 10:21 AM

So let’s see. Janet Yellen, at least as of yesterday, sees three or more interest rate increases in 2017 and wants the dollar higher. The Trump team, reportedly, will seek large cuts to government spending.

 

So… tighter monetary policy + tighter fiscal policy + unfavorable export pricing = market euphoria? Sorry, that equation doesn’t make sense.

 

Time for the pain trade. Yeah, I know, fundamentals. But still...

 



#2 redfoliage2

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Posted 19 January 2017 - 10:56 AM

Even though fundamentally and technically this market is more than ripe for a sell but I guess the rigging will go on for a few more days for the reasons other than fundamental or technical.  For now I just sell into pops and buy dips.................


Edited by redfoliage2, 19 January 2017 - 11:02 AM.


#3 libertas

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Posted 19 January 2017 - 11:00 AM

Probably. But next week could be, shall we say, very interesting. Twitter should probably be ordering more servers.

 

Anyway, long TZA and  TLT.


Edited by libertas, 19 January 2017 - 11:02 AM.


#4 dasein

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Posted 19 January 2017 - 05:43 PM

Twitter should probably be ordering more servers.:)

 

will anything save TWTR?


best,
klh

#5 Charvo

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Posted 19 January 2017 - 06:44 PM

I've been looking at the KBE, and it is looking a little weak.  The current dip is threatening to break its bullish trend.  KBE seems to be a trender, and it is an excellent gauge of market health.  

 

However, EEM is strong.  This means liquidity is high in the market probably due to new China credit for 2017.  TLT has made a bounce.  Treasury market making a corrective bounce while the financials work off this extremely overbought condition is my thinking.



#6 diogenes227

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Posted 19 January 2017 - 09:26 PM

A little tidbit from Zero Hedge:

 

Calm Before The Storm -

 

 

Having tested and bounced off a 10-handle last week, we note that the last two times VIX speculative shorts were this high, Spot VIX spiked soon after to at least 22.

 


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."