7 replies to this topic

[da_cheif]

63% out of the market with little price concession....where IS the euphoria

 

BULLISH
37.0%
-6.6 Percentage point
change from
last week

 

seems like nobody give these number much respect and ive been posting them all the way up for months

[Charvo]

I wonder how many of those AAII investors are heavily weighted in bonds.  With a significant number of boomers getting up there in years, I think the huge bond market rally had a strong underpinning of boomers allocating to "less" risky assets.  The long treasury bond might have been the best investment among the stock/bond universe choices going into the mid year top.

 

I've been reading about the minimum required distribution for boomers 70.5 years.  Wouldn't this affect bonds way, way more than stocks?  With that being said, I think the treasury market has room to fall with stocks moving up in a gradual pace albeit with minor corrections.

[lawdog]

But investors intelligence, newsletter writers, are at 60.6 bulls to 17.6 bears, which is close to, if not, euphoric. Other than perhaps in 2014, the market has generally underperformed when newsletter writers are this bullish.

[da_cheif]

But investors intelligence, newsletter writers, are at 60.6 bulls to 17.6 bears, which is close to, if not, euphoric. Other than perhaps in 2014, the market has generally underperformed when newsletter writers are this bullish.

same thing happen 3 months off the 03 low...number of bull go even higher....then the market kept goin up for 4 more years....being bearish is easy ....anybody can do it    .....watch the sky

[da_cheif]

I wonder how many of those AAII investors are heavily weighted in bonds.  With a significant number of boomers getting up there in years, I think the huge bond market rally had a strong underpinning of boomers allocating to "less" risky assets.  The long treasury bond might have been the best investment among the stock/bond universe choices going into the mid year top.

 

I've been reading about the minimum required distribution for boomers 70.5 years.  Wouldn't this affect bonds way, way more than stocks?  With that being said, I think the treasury market has room to fall with stocks moving up in a gradual pace albeit with minor corrections.

bonds shud crash as the market screams higher....waddya think....interest rates wont explode with the economy  goin nuts?

[da_cheif]

in a bull mkt the bulls are allways right......watch the sky

[nimblebear]

AAII #'s are meaningless. Every single boomer that has any significant amount in their 401k, has an advisor telling them a few years before 65, the large percentage that should be in bonds.   10,000 boomers retiring per day, DO NOT have much money in stocks, or anywhere near the proportions that they had prior to 2000, and prior 2008.  Each of those prior bull tops, were not also allowed to reach true bear market bottoms.  The process was cut short by artificial means. 

 

The only thing keeping the market propped is 1) algo's, 2) HFT, and 3) continued QE.  This is QE not just from US Fed, but other central banks.

 

Another question: If AAII is supposedly working as an 'indicator', then why is Vix not working ?  It signals massive complacency.  

 

Ever since 2008, with the amount of debt, and the amount of QE that has flooded markets, every single macro indicator has been made irrelevant, as every prior method of assessing risk, tells the average professional there simply is no risk in the markets. They've all been effectively neutered.

 

Have fun cherry picking your favorite indicator, to provide the confirmation bias of what you wish to see. 

[lawdog]

 

But investors intelligence, newsletter writers, are at 60.6 bulls to 17.6 bears, which is close to, if not, euphoric. Other than perhaps in 2014, the market has generally underperformed when newsletter writers are this bullish.

same thing happen 3 months off the 03 low...number of bull go even higher....then the market kept goin up for 4 more years....being bearish is easy ....anybody can do it    .....watch the sky

 

 

but the market topped out at that high level in june of 03, pulled back for two months, during which time the bull/bear ratio corrected significantly, after which time the rally resumed, and then again stalled and dropped when the ratio got high again. i am not saying yet that this ratio is on a sell, or that the market and the ratio cannot work higher, but to suggest all is clear because of some generally unhelpful aaii readings is simplistic.