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Market head games


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#1 tradesurfer

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Posted 06 February 2017 - 01:49 PM

Guys I think the top is in here soon.  Last weeks weekly candle was likely a 'hanging man' candlestick portends a top.  Also other weekly indicators are about to reach a bearish inflection point either this week or next.

 

VIX catching a small bid again.  The outside reversal in VIX last week was a HUGE tell. (And so far only about half of that candle has been retraced into, if that stays the same then it says VIX moves higher from here )

 

Highly attractive shorting opportunity here and now IMO.


Edited by tradesurfer, 06 February 2017 - 01:51 PM.


#2 fib_1618

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Posted 06 February 2017 - 02:18 PM

As long as cumulative breadth and volume continue to make new highs, the path of least resistance will remain to the upside.

 

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#3 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 06 February 2017 - 05:54 PM

I don't know...  We are in a topping environment...   Looking at Monthly charts on SPY you can see the rally has been losing strength..   The daily charts shows indecision.....

 

My best guess that if the market were to rally from here, it would need to do so on good Earnings or economic news.....

 

For Q4, we see earnings are mildly improving ( backward earnings )

 

We also see GDP starting to wane a little..

 

With the market being overbought, I the market wants to see good news first...    Good housing and Car Sales help drive the market higher in January, these dropped in February, so growth on big  items are low single digits with risk of downside

 

 

Barry



#4 Charvo

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Posted 06 February 2017 - 06:53 PM

Guys I think the top is in here soon.  Last weeks weekly candle was likely a 'hanging man' candlestick portends a top.  Also other weekly indicators are about to reach a bearish inflection point either this week or next.

 

VIX catching a small bid again.  The outside reversal in VIX last week was a HUGE tell. (And so far only about half of that candle has been retraced into, if that stays the same then it says VIX moves higher from here )

 

Highly attractive shorting opportunity here and now IMO.

 

I agree.  VIX is bullish, but EEM is also bullish.  There is some serious liquidity in this market.  It's tough to be shorting with this market flush with money.  I'm sitting on my hands with some bearish call spreads in the VXX.  Nothing big though.



#5 uburack

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Posted 06 February 2017 - 09:46 PM

My best guess that if the market were to rally from here, it would need to do so on good Earnings or economic news.....

 

Barry

 

 

But, only takes a smidgin, I mean a mere whiff of a vapor, of good news to overcome a mountain of bad news lately.


John 21:6 And he said unto them, "Cast the net on the right side of the ship, and ye shall find". They cast therefore, and now they were not able to draw it for the multitude of fishes.

#6 da_cheif

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Posted 06 February 2017 - 11:46 PM

being bearish and worried is easy....anybody can do it....so why worry when there is an army of professional worriers doing it for you.......watch the sky



#7 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 07 February 2017 - 09:16 AM

 

My best guess that if the market were to rally from here, it would need to do so on good Earnings or economic news.....

 

Barry

 

 

But, only takes a smidgin, I mean a mere whiff of a vapor, of good news to overcome a mountain of bad news lately.

 

 

Exactly. We still have the same problem as before-- no good place to park money except in stocks.
 

My read is that this persists until the economy really firms up.

 

THEN we need to worry.

 

M


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