7 replies to this topic

[da_cheif]

AMAZINGLY 65% still out of the market....when it gets  around 70% in the market then i would be looking for a big reaction tilll then......WATCH THE SKY!!!

[opinionated]

Then we are at new highs from who's money?

 

The secret QE?  The one that ended last year?  Thats a crock... 

 

I doubt 65% out of the Market Don...

[LMF]

Latest numbers......36.54 neutral and 27.65 bearish, added together 64.19 percent.  A better view is that the bulls have not been above 50 percent since Jan 2015.... based on that, there's no top even on the horizon yet.

[gm_general]

 

http://www.zerohedge...ge-highest-2004

 

 

http://www.zerohedge...-level-23-years

[da_cheif]

investors intell......that survey chart is what it looked like a few months off the 2003 low....the market kept goin for 4 more years......you sound worried about something   .so predictable.....thats what years and years of experience has taught me Message 26936575

[lawdog]

investors intell......that survey chart is what it looked like a few months off the 2003 low....the market kept goin for 4 more years......you sound worried about something   .so predictable.....thats what years and years of experience has taught me Message 269365

how dare one question royalty. and if you used some analysis on top of your years of experience, you would notice that the mkt topped out in june 2003 where ii was very high and did not get rolling again until ii had dropped back to a neutral reading; and it did the same in feb of '04. II certainly has its limitations, but it was also very high from  feb 2014 to feb 2016, two years, during which time the spx lost about 15%, and the mkt didn't get rolling again until II had dropped to historically negative levels

 

and while we're at it, and i know Mark pointed this out several times before, to extrapolate from the aaii weeklies that 65% of people are out of the market , is naive, yes, naive. more helpful might be paying attention to aaii's allocation to stocks number, which is currently fairly high and is very close to the high numbers for this indicator during the 07 - 08 debacle, with it bottoming out at 41 in March 09. so that number is now much closer to prior extremes than it was in summer 03, where it was around 52, again much lower from where we are now. 

[da_cheif]

so while theres been arguments about the usefullness of AAII numbers for the last number of months and years the markets response is  admirable is it not?; and of course the correct use of elliott wave has born fruit nonetheless....

[lawdog]

just one example of how aaii is a terrible fade: on the cusp of the 08 decline with the spx at 1500 on Dec 26 2007, just preceding a 55% drop in the next 14 months, the aaii bulls were at 30%. one more example: the 20 month bear that began on about may 20, 2015, with spx at 2125, had aaii bulls at 25. so based on superman's theory, 70% were "out of the market" before the 08 bear and 75% were out at the start of the 2015 bear. it is clear from his posts that superman sees aaii as a contrary indicator, so why is it that 70% of small investors were out of the market at the start of one of the worst bear markets in history and more recently 75% were out at the start of a 20-month bear that cut 15% off the spx? that's a lot of sky watching with nothing to see. watch the sky and fall into a pit.