8 replies to this topic

[tradesurfer]

I dont think gold is quite ready for prime time.   1260 or so is right at the point of the YEARLY price bar down trendline.   I dont see us breaking above that yet.  The year is still early.

 

I think they are going to take gold down again into the french elections end of April.   The Euro will likely plunge into the french elections and the US dollar will probably skyrocket into the french elections.  Then on the news of Lepen winning, will cause a final low in gold price and a top in the dollar.

[dharma]

you sound like armstrong
dharma

[crossd]

..i like your scenario..

 

the Hurst cycle fans are calling for an important low in April on SPX..thus stocks

 

donc

[dougie]

interesting scenario: do you see a lower low in GOLD? i still think we are not out of the woods yet here. 

[tradesurfer]

Who knows if we see a lower low in gold, IF we do then it would only likely be a marginally under 1000, like 950 or something like that.  

 

Think about it.  Think about how many sell stops are at that level.

 

You just have to look at other price charts and time and time again you see these 'flushes' where the market zooms down to try to flush out both the bears and the bulls to clean out the price creating a massive hammer candlestick.  In this regard I agree with Marty, when he talks about a 'slingshot'.  In that some of the biggest most sustained moves in markets only come after a huge flush.

 

See this yearly chart of the US dollar to see what I mean.

 

[crossd]

..latest reports show inflation picking up..and  even with rates rising i can't see a lower low in gold..

 

donc

[tradesurfer]

I have been studying the last several YEARLY candlestick bars on the gold price and sure enough it appears the recent gold high bounced right off of the yearly down trendline.

 

Whether it is a full aggressive trendline rejection or something more moderate remains to be seen.

 

But I will see amazingly that it is possible to trade off of a YEARLY price bar chart. AMAZING!

 

[dougie]

Could well portend some new lows then , no?

[tradesurfer]

anything is possible, most hate gold, so they could swing it down to 1050, bust out all the stop protective orders and then swing slightly under 1000 and then rally all the way back up to 1250 during 3rd and 4th quarter creating a YEARLY bullish reversal hammer.

 

if a YEARLY bullish reversal hammer is fully formed then I think it is time to back up the truck