11 replies to this topic

[Douglas]

A system buy stop has been crossed since the DJIA is above the top of the expanding triangle trend line at about 20160 after 3 pm today, but the current risk window blocks the buy since prices are rising into a high turn risk period. If the DJIA is still above the top of the expanding triangle trend line Monday at 3 pm outside the risk window, the system will be forced in probably at much higher prices unfortunately.

Regards,
Douglas

[fib_1618]

"Unfortunately"? Sounds like you're using this tool to confirm a bias?

 

Fib

[Douglas]

I try to take my bias out with this system. It has a written set of simple rules in a big EXCEL spread sheet which I try my best to religiously follow. The "unfortunately" part is that if the risk window is not a turn but a dud or an acceleration event, staying out is the wrong move, but I'm following Rule #6 in the system which says to sit on your hands if you have a buy signal if the index is rising into a risk window. I'm chewing at the bit to buy, but the system says wait. Monday 3pm is not too long to wait if this really is a big break out.

Regards,
Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 09 February 2017 - 04:08 PM.

[fib_1618]

Fair enough. However, as a suggestion, if this is a true trending system, time windows will only impede the progress of your trade.

 

Allow the trend to trigger...impulse...and then exhaust itself, at its own pace, while keeping turn dates/windows as something more academic than obstinate.

 

The why's and wherefores will come later....let the math do its magic.

 

BTW...a use of the A/D will help keep you on the right track in this regard.

 

Fib

[Douglas]

Most A/D lines I follow are bullish and either leading the indexes higher or, like the weekly A/D line, appear to be about to get in sync with the index up move. One A/D line is giving me pause, !ADLINENYC, the NY common stock one on stockcharts.com. If the advance continues through Monday, even that will probably get in sync with the bull. Buying high to sell higher doesn't bother me. I don't mind getting on the train half way up the hill, but jumping on board right before it runs off the cliff is a real bummer.

Regards,
Douglas

[opinionated]

IMO We are on the edge of a cliff,

 

We are buying time up here... holding off a waterfall.  One that may be averted by a powerful sustained move up no doubt. But from two charts I see it is a ticking clock.

 

I see one small move down next 3 days... 2285ish, One more small move up to 2298ish then after Feb 20 the slippery slope takes hold....

 

 

http://stockcharts.c...book/482462234;

 

http://stockcharts.c...id=p71642276705

Edited by opinionated, 10 February 2017 - 06:42 AM.

[fib_1618]

I don't mind getting on the train half way up the hill, but jumping on board right before it runs off the cliff is a real bummer.

 

This is the kind of thinking that get all traders in trouble.

 

Second guessing yourself is self defeating, lacks discipline, and will therefore keep you from making money on a consistent basis. You have to respect and follow your technical tools or system, whatever it may be, or you might as well throw darts.

 

There's also a reason why stops are part of a trader's package...just in case your timing is wrong.

 

Fib

[Rite01]

 

I don't mind getting on the train half way up the hill, but jumping on board right before it runs off the cliff is a real bummer.

 

This is the kind of thinking that get all traders in trouble.

 

Second guessing yourself is self defeating, lacks discipline, and will therefore keep you from making money on a consistent basis. You have to respect and follow your technical tools or system, whatever it may be, or you might as well throw darts.

 

There's also a reason why stops are part of a trader's package...just in case your timing is wrong.

 

Fib

 

 

 

Fib

 

“Second guessing yourself is self defeating”

 

Thanks for the reminder and keep up your good works.  Today could be your 3 to 1 plurality call.  We’ll see at the close. 

 

Have a good weekend.

 

rite01

[Douglas]

Rather amazing sentiment readings at www.investing.com at the end of this week: For S&P - 21% Bulls and 79% Bears. Wow! AAII also only had 35.8% Bulls at the end of the week also pretty wild given the stock indexes at record highs. There were surveys at respectable heights including Bullish Consensus at 76% and Market Vane at 66% Bulls so everyone was not in the bear camp, but still a pretty mixed bag given the S&P index trend break out to new highs.

The Friday 10th of February risk window may be a bit too narrow. There was one risk cycle turn last Thursday, three and possibly four on Friday and there will be one this coming Monday the 13th. I assumed that this pointed to a peak in risk on Friday which I noted in an earlier thread, but the sentiment I note above makes me think that I was a bit too hasty in narrowing the risk window to just Friday. If the market is going to turn, Monday may be in the window too. Of course it could be an acceleration event given the break out noted above. I realize that this whole risk window element is a bit too subjective. I hope to develop a better set of rules to govern it in the near future. The point of this rambling note is that it is increasingly looking likely that the system will be forced to eat crow and chase this rally unless Shinzo and Donald get into a putter sword fight at Mar-a-Lago.

Regards,
Douglas

Edited by Douglas, 11 February 2017 - 10:55 AM.

[fib_1618]

The point of this rambling note is that it is increasingly looking likely that the system will be forced to eat crow and chase this rally unless Shinzo and Donald get into a putter sword fight at Mar-a-Lago.

 

And the day in which you no longer include politics (or fundamentals) within your analysis will make you a far better and disciplined trader.

 

Here's what I've found over the years: if you have no control about something, if you have no power, there's no sense in worrying about it.

 

Fib