4 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

A long time ago, StigO noted that when a typically "Bearish" pattern is broken to the upside, it's VERY Bullish.

 

[fib_1618]

It would only be a bearish wedge if daily volume was below average during the sequence (indicating an exhaustion of liquidity).

 

This time around, it wasn't (liquidity was ample), so it was actually (in concept) a trading range with a rising bias...or what some call a "leading diagonal".

 

Fib

[CLK]

It would only be a bearish wedge if daily volume was below average during the sequence (indicating an exhaustion of liquidity).

 

This time around, it wasn't (liquidity was ample), so it was actually (in concept) a trading range with a rising bias...or what some call a "leading diagonal".

 

Fib

 

Fib,

 

I don't know how you determine average daily volume. I see volume dropping since the start of the month, although it went flat

the last few days. Seems to make sense but I have no way of accurately reading it on a chart, volume can be falling and get a couple 

bars up, but I can't tell how to trade off that with high odds. For now I have to stay with NYMO patterns.

[fib_1618]

 

It would only be a bearish wedge if daily volume was below average during the sequence (indicating an exhaustion of liquidity).

 

This time around, it wasn't (liquidity was ample), so it was actually (in concept) a trading range with a rising bias...or what some call a "leading diagonal".

 

Fib

 

Fib,

 

I don't know how you determine average daily volume. I see volume dropping since the start of the month, although it went flat

the last few days. Seems to make sense but I have no way of accurately reading it on a chart, volume can be falling and get a couple 

bars up, but I can't tell how to trade off that with high odds. For now I have to stay with NYMO patterns.

 

"Average Daily Volume" can be applied just like any moving average.

 

I like to use a 34 day EMA since it gives a good intermediate term pulse.

 

With that, the SPX is noted below...you'll note the higher than average volume during the construction of the rising wedge.

 

Fib

 

Edited by fib_1618, 12 February 2017 - 07:45 AM.

[robo]

MT trades from the long side continue to be higher risk setups. In the ST anything can happen and the trend remains up. However, it's with much higher risk levels if you are positioned long. Not a time to be using to much leverage if you are remaining long.

 

http://stockcharts.c...m=1&a=505726870

 

http://stockcharts.c...246&a=506142527

 

 

February 13, 2017

Time-Stamp of Speculative Euphoria

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
 

If there’s any point in U.S. stock market history, next to the market peaks of 1929 and 2000, that has deserved a time-stamp of speculative euphoria that will be bewildering in hindsight, now is that moment. Perhaps there’s room for this burning wick to shorten further, but across every effective, value-conscious, historically-informed classification method we use, the estimated downside risk of the market overwhelms its upside potential. The chart below shows monthly candlesticks for the S&P 500 Index since 1996, including the tech bubble and collapse, the Fed-induced mortgage bubble and collapse, and the speculative first half of the current, wholly uncompleted cycle. I believe the equity market now faces the likelihood of deeper losses over the completion of this cycle than any other in history, save for the collapse that followed the 1929 peak.

 

https://www.hussmanf...c/wmc170213.htm

Edited by robo, 12 February 2017 - 05:38 PM.