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Second OOPS! Signal in SLV, GLD, etc

Following One in SPY Earlier

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#1 thoughtpwr

thoughtpwr

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Posted 13 February 2017 - 02:46 AM

I didn't call out the OOPS signal on Friday, since I was busy making trades; but it clearly occurred and ended with the metals above the midpoint of the low. This is how the SPY setup its Thurs & Fri advance above 230. The metals and SPY are both rising, only out of phase with respect to each other on most days.  That is why I think we are weak on SPY Mon & Tues.

 

This along with the fact that the heaviest open interest during expiration lay at 230 and 232, the later of which saw as some SPY resistance late Friday.  We were rebuffed at 230 the first time as well, potentially meaning we selloff from here in a like manner. With the metals likely to advance the next two days, with a pattern similar to that taken by SPY, I look for SPY to consolidate between 230 and 232 this week before moving higher.

 

A seasonal BUY exists in SPY between 2/27 COB to 3/5 with greater than 80% win rate. 2/27 is also a turn date, which I peg as a low, since SPY based on the post Jan results implies a low just prior to 3/1.

 

I would not be surprised by a decline on Mon to 230.75 to fill the gap and a subsequent rally back to 232 and back down to a turn around Tues low at 230.5; followed by a rally above 232 into late this week and early next week. Likely that target is 234 due to a 1.618 multiplier on the congestion area between 230 & 232. I am looking for a local top in the 3/3-3/5 time frame before we get more serious retracements. 


Edited by thoughtpwr, 13 February 2017 - 02:50 AM.