Mark S. Young
Posted 14 February 2017 - 10:42 AM
There are ZERO short Bears in the position poll. While this is a little bit ST Bearish, there is virtually zero likelihood of a top of any importance today.
In the 14 years of running these polls, I can only recollect 3 times that a top of any import was formed without our pollees heavily short.
So, I'm thinking I'm looking to buy weakness today.
Mark
Mark S Young
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Posted 14 February 2017 - 11:59 AM
maybe so, but i have plotted the daily from dec 2015 to dec 2016, giving two points to full position long, 1 point to part long, then negative 1 for part short and negative 2 for full short, and the board was not very negative before the jan 2016 drop and has been negative consistently in this rally from feb 2016, and it has been only the last month or so which has seen a positive result based on this methodology. so i see this bullish condition as a definite fade.
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Posted 14 February 2017 - 12:10 PM
maybe so, but i have plotted the daily from dec 2015 to dec 2016, giving two points to full position long, 1 point to part long, then negative 1 for part short and negative 2 for full short, and the board was not very negative before the jan 2016 drop and has been negative consistently in this rally from feb 2016, and it has been only the last month or so which has seen a positive result based on this methodology. so i see this bullish condition as a definite fade.
It depends on the time-frame one trades... I think we could see an ST high/pause near ~2350, but the broad market is no where near an IT top.
From last night's update: ...the SPX daily with the slow momentum... showing that indeed the momentum peak has not yet occurred, and in fact, the indicator line broke to new highs and is not that very far from exceeding 2013 highs... please keep in mind, that the last time the momentum peak occurred, the SPX pushed upward another 500 points before finally hitting its price peak.
Link to SPX daily slow momentum chart: https://postimg.org/image/mjjbhdcd5/
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Posted 14 February 2017 - 12:14 PM
the point is that historically in the last year, the poll has been bearish despite a fabulous rally, and now in the last few weeks, after 500 points on the spx, the board starts to turn bullish.
Mark S. Young
Posted 14 February 2017 - 12:35 PM
How many indicators are that close to perfect?
You just don't want to be picking a top without this board as company. Sure, maybe it'll be different this time, but it's more likely that you'll win a scratch off. 
M
Mark S Young
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Posted 14 February 2017 - 01:21 PM
We all get to vote with our money.
Volume Dynamics Specialist
Posted 14 February 2017 - 01:27 PM
All I need is GS...
They will serve no WHINE until it's TIME
and when it is TIME, do not fade their signals...
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Posted 14 February 2017 - 02:10 PM
"So, I'm thinking I'm looking to buy weakness today.
Mark"
Ya, I had a nice bear set up a week ago, but nothing triggered, but it did take me out of my buy any/all dips mode. Not any more, back to buying any dip until wrong twice in a row...major bull run continues. It doesnt feel comfortable but its right.
Member
Posted 14 February 2017 - 02:35 PM
It doesnt feel comfortable but its right.
That's why it's called a "wall of worry".
Fib
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Posted 14 February 2017 - 02:57 PM
There is a large open interest in VIX on the put side for tomorrow's VIX expiration. The last time this happened in Sept we had a VIX pop (per Schaeffer). We are at the top of the channel and unless new bull news can rally us over that, it likely means we head south into the end of the month which is seasonally weak. It may not occur until next week and could be from higher levels. I am all for that, but a lot of things temporarily going against the market. Largest turn date this month is 2/27, which normally comes from a low into the seasonally favorable first week of month time frame. Then we should continue the upside party into March.
Plus we have a TRIX divergence in today's top.
Edited by thoughtpwr, 14 February 2017 - 03:02 PM.
