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Possible Down Move Thurs


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#1 thoughtpwr

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Posted 15 February 2017 - 05:14 PM

SPY exceeded the upper band of Andrews Pitchfork today.  Its likely that market has to retest that breakout tomorrow.  It also touched the high side of the long narrow channel it has remained within for this run.  This has previously brought about a retracement to the lower band. If it gaps down and rallies back tomorrow, this suggests a low of at least SPY 233.9.  It might have to go down to 233.3 to tag a MOV, so I would not be surprised to see a serious challenge down at tomorrow's open with a subsequent rally into Friday's close or Tues.

 

We also have people imbalanced in puts on VIX or not covered at all after today's VIX expiration, which sets up a potential VIX pop.  VIX has popped today as the market has moved higher for the second day in a week.  That is new development, which could be a tell about the final months of a bull market.  Worth keeping an eye on that moving forward.

 

Finally, Curry has a SW program that is predicting an advance in tomorrow's daily in GLD, which has been going sideways for the last several days.



#2 thoughtpwr

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Posted 16 February 2017 - 03:33 PM

Market came down and tagged the Pitchfork and lower trendline this AM.  Has retested it mildly, as it never actually touched it again. The formation on the bottom probably ends with a slightly lower open tomorrow and then we head off to the races Fri, Tues in a steeper ascent. I look for the 23 as the turn date and we come down hard, but don't reach this bottom (close). 2/27 should be a low. Then up though April. 

 

Made transitions today to cover my shorts in URA for the next couple of days.

 

I missed getting our of VXX on the low, but am expecting a VIX gap open tomorrow to exit.

 

I also opened bull put spread on CSCO. Have many epirations of spreads concluding tomorrow and will reallocate next week.


Edited by thoughtpwr, 16 February 2017 - 03:34 PM.


#3 thoughtpwr

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Posted 17 February 2017 - 03:35 PM

The SPY came down and tagged the Pitchfork's upper band three times between Thurs AM & Fri AM, went long MGM, CSCO & SPY for run higher, which clearly started this Fri PM.  Looking for 236.9 minimum and possibly 237.6 - 238 with overshoot of channel  in a local top by Wed/Thurs AM of next week. 


Edited by thoughtpwr, 17 February 2017 - 03:42 PM.