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Possible Top?


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#1 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 16 February 2017 - 10:21 AM

ST only.

 

From this morning's letter:

"Last time, I said that, oddly, the VIX jumped markedly going to a ST Buy and an IT Sell. Odder still the OEX P/C was flashing a weak Buy in the same context. We were/are still on an Options Oscillator Sell, and technically, we should see some selling. Our "Best Fade" Sell technically has a roughly 89% chance of bringing some Selling. We were hoping to get some clarity from the Message Board Sentiment, to help us determine if we can get a pullback of at least some utility. This morning's sentiment readings suggest something is up, but there's a lot of mixed signals in this data. The Opinion Poll is Bullish for the market. The lack of Fully Long Bulls has to be considered at least possibly Bullish, conceptually, but this is such a rare reading that it's hard to hang your hat on it. The plurality of Short Bears is actually consistent with a top. That's not a signal or a lock, but if you want to pick a top, you want this crew to be short. There's always extra risk in top picking, but my read is that this is about as good a set up for a swing top as one gets--not good enough to send me to the showers (for Timer Digest), mind you, but pretty good.


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#2 SemiBizz

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Posted 16 February 2017 - 10:26 AM

Well, pretty easy call...

 

GS going to have to break 248.51.

 

Nothing bearish going on before that.


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#3 thoughtpwr

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Posted 16 February 2017 - 10:53 AM

Someone on the board said "it feels like a third wave".  The formation we have experienced over the last two weeks says the same thing.  If that is the case, we have a long way to go before we get any decent pullback. One thing about most 3rd waves is that there will be a very large one day down move that shocks most and it just keeps going up. I think that event is just ahead in the next week. That should be a confirming event. The narrow channel we have been in, when exceeded to the upside by about a day's increase over the upper band should mark this event about to happen, but once bottomed it should be a strong buy. One thing one can do at this stage is to buy VIX calls, as we are likely to have a steady growth in that index as we go forward which should help as a hedge for the longs you have.



#4 SemiBizz

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Posted 16 February 2017 - 11:00 AM

Gets one penny over the previous high on the SPX and gives it up...

 

If that holds, it is an all time classic !


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#5 SemiBizz

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Posted 16 February 2017 - 11:43 AM

Well, pretty easy call...

 

GS going to have to break 248.51.

 

Nothing bearish going on before that.

 

248.57... and the bounce... shooting for 250.58...

 

 

They getting after the energy stocks today, but not severe...

 

Very ugly 4 hour stick on crude contract ...


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#6 Rogerdodger

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Posted 16 February 2017 - 12:10 PM

S&P E Mini

https://www.barchart...es/quotes/ESH17

 

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 96% Buy with a Strengthening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Maximum. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

 

The market is in highly overbought territory. Beware of a trend reversal.


Edited by Rogerdodger, 16 February 2017 - 12:10 PM.


#7 fib_1618

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Posted 16 February 2017 - 12:46 PM

Barchart Technical Opinion

The Barchart Technical Opinion rating is a 96% Buy with a Strengthening short term outlook on maintaining the current direction.

Longer term, the trend strength is Maximum. Long term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend.

 

The BETS  indicator has also been on a "strong buy" signal for 5 of the last 6 weeks...and on a general buy signal for 10 straight weeks going back to December 9th.

 

Fib


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#8 SemiBizz

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Posted 16 February 2017 - 01:06 PM

Oops... GS starting to roll over again... 248s...

 

We will see.

 

New low in this time frame not a bullish development intraday...


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#9 SemiBizz

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Posted 16 February 2017 - 01:50 PM

Well, pretty easy call...

 

GS going to have to break 248.51.

 

Nothing bearish going on before that.

 

248.52 - these guys are good ~~


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Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

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#10 SemiBizz

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Posted 16 February 2017 - 02:28 PM

248.50  Tested on vapor fumes...


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Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

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