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wave 3? continued


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#51 senorBS

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Posted 24 February 2017 - 12:37 PM

i have to defer to my work. my tendency at this juncture is want to be fully invested from her on out. however my work shows a
correction coming up soon. so, i got off margin and raised some cash. i sold 2 positions and both are down today. i suspect after
next week we see a 4-6 week correction. that will be a great buying opportunity.
the commercials remain very short tHE dollar. and are very short silver.
dharma

I tend to agree and at this time the miners are certainly "leading" the correction, AEM and others with "disappointing" earnings have already corrected a good bit as has the HUI/Gold ratio, I think some of these stocks are easily halfway or more thru their corrections, we'll see. Again, before a very small buy this mornin I had NO positions so increasing my exposure on this dip will just get me back to a small core positon, I will add this; currently both GLD and SLV are seeing their daily RSI confirm these new price highs - so no divergences there. Lets hope we get that "load the boats" opp perhaps in mid March or so

 

Senor



#52 dharma

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Posted 24 February 2017 - 01:03 PM

i have to defer to my work. my tendency at this juncture is want to be fully invested from her on out. however my work shows a
correction coming up soon. so, i got off margin and raised some cash. i sold 2 positions and both are down today. i suspect after
next week we see a 4-6 week correction. that will be a great buying opportunity.
the commercials remain very short tHE dollar. and are very short silver.
dharma

I tend to agree and at this time the miners are certainly "leading" the correction, AEM and others with "disappointing" earnings have already corrected a good bit as has the HUI/Gold ratio, I think some of these stocks are easily halfway or more thru their corrections, we'll see. Again, before a very small buy this mornin I had NO positions so increasing my exposure on this dip will just get me back to a small core positon, I will add this; currently both GLD and SLV are seeing their daily RSI confirm these new price highs - so no divergences there. Lets hope we get that "load the boats" opp perhaps in mid March or so
 
Senor

i am feeling this- venus went retrograde 3/6/09 the stock market bottomed. it goes retrograde 3/4/17 the stock market will put in a top of some duration. the broad market has not a meaningful
correction since 08/09 i think we have some kind of broad market decline, which will bring the miners back down. it may be a larger decline than folks are anticipating. hadik has also said it
is possible miners make new lows not supported by the metals. anyway , my work shows a decline dead ahead. i believe the place
to be 3-5yrs is right here in the metals. i believe the majors begin a buying frenzy before 17 concludes. i did not sell one of
the explorers i have. anyway that is my thinking. broads correct . fed panics . miners under duress
the friend who alerted me to chpgf some many years back . told me yesterday, he spoke w/riefel the other day and someone is kicking
the tires of chpgf. mentates is one of the largest strikes in the world. it also has a large strike of silver and zinc.
i know nothing. do your own dd. its your money. investigate. or it wont be your money for long!
dharma

#53 senorBS

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Posted 24 February 2017 - 02:59 PM

interesting HUI/Gold ratio action, this ratio made a new high for the year about 10 days ago near .18, right now it is near .164 which is the area where the 50-day MA resides, this is the first serious test of the breakout above the 200-day MA which occurred in late Dec. And this .1650 area represents a 38% retracement of the entire ratio rally from the Dec bottom.This rally did for several days take us above the higher 200-day MA but now a full fledged correction is underway. Bears watching at this area of possible Fibo and MA support

 

Senor


Edited by senorBS, 24 February 2017 - 03:05 PM.


#54 senorBS

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Posted 24 February 2017 - 03:20 PM

should read "first serious test of the breakout above the 50-day MA"

 

Senor



#55 johngeorge

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Posted 24 February 2017 - 04:03 PM

dharma

 

"i did not sell one of
the explorers i have. anyway that is my thinking. broads correct . fed panics . miners under duress
the friend who alerted me to chpgf some many years back . told me yesterday, he spoke w/riefel the other day and someone is kicking
the tires of chpgf. mentates is one of the largest strikes in the world. it also has a large strike of silver and zinc.
i know nothing. do your own dd. its your money. investigate. or it wont be your money for long!"

 

Interesting you mention CHPGF as I have owned it for a long time now.  It is up nicely today so I suspect your friend is in the know.  I still own 9 explorers and am not selling any.  I feel very sure that one, two, or perhaps more will be bought out at some future date.  Meanwhile I wait to buy mid cap producers and perhaps a large cap.   Looking also at VGPMX.   Thanks for the thread. smile.png


Peace
johngeorge

#56 senorBS

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Posted 25 February 2017 - 02:43 PM

the more I look at the charts today the more I think next week is very important, especially to the miners, IMO this decline into Friday's close in GDX/HUI etc needs to end very soon, if it does not then I get a lot more cautious about everything. I already am very cautious with about a 5% long position and am very happy to be very conservative here. I can always act extremely quickly but the late week significant miner weakness with the gold and silver strength should have everyone very attentive here, especially given that the HUI/gold ratio closed at a very important support area Friday, in fact it closed slightly below support but a decent rally on Monday in that ratio could fix that and IMO improvement in that ratio is badly needed soon. I lean bullish but this IMO is not a time to be over confident in any position and not carefully looking both ways, next week is critical IMO

 

PureBS

 

Senor



#57 dharma

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Posted 25 February 2017 - 05:58 PM

the more I look at the charts today the more I think next week is very important, especially to the miners, IMO this decline into Friday's close in GDX/HUI etc needs to end very soon, if it does not then I get a lot more cautious about everything. I already am very cautious with about a 5% long position and am very happy to be very conservative here. I can always act extremely quickly but the late week significant miner weakness with the gold and silver strength should have everyone very attentive here, especially given that the HUI/gold ratio closed at a very important support area Friday, in fact it closed slightly below support but a decent rally on Monday in that ratio could fix that and IMO improvement in that ratio is badly needed soon. I lean bullish but this IMO is not a time to be over confident in any position and not carefully looking both ways, next week is critical IMO

 

PureBS

 

Senor

senor i am looking at this as simply the miners lead. now, anything can happen. but, my leaning is towards correction. of course we shall see.  next week should be a transition , and the following week the direction should be apparent. 

dharma



#58 senorBS

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Posted 25 February 2017 - 07:55 PM

 

the more I look at the charts today the more I think next week is very important, especially to the miners, IMO this decline into Friday's close in GDX/HUI etc needs to end very soon, if it does not then I get a lot more cautious about everything. I already am very cautious with about a 5% long position and am very happy to be very conservative here. I can always act extremely quickly but the late week significant miner weakness with the gold and silver strength should have everyone very attentive here, especially given that the HUI/gold ratio closed at a very important support area Friday, in fact it closed slightly below support but a decent rally on Monday in that ratio could fix that and IMO improvement in that ratio is badly needed soon. I lean bullish but this IMO is not a time to be over confident in any position and not carefully looking both ways, next week is critical IMO

 

PureBS

 

Senor

senor i am looking at this as simply the miners lead. now, anything can happen. but, my leaning is towards correction. of course we shall see.  next week should be a transition , and the following week the direction should be apparent. 

dharma

 

this is what makes a market because if gold and silver perhaps get hit hard next week a key for me will be whether the miners crater or do the perhaps hold up fairly well because they have already taken a pretty good hit, that's where that HUI/gold ratio will be a key to watch for me

 

Senor



#59 Smithy

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Posted 26 February 2017 - 11:26 AM

Dharma,  Ray Merriman (MMA) says Feb 22 to April 21 is astrologically adverse for trading. How seriously should a trader take this view?



#60 dharma

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Posted 26 February 2017 - 12:22 PM

Dharma,  Ray Merriman (MMA) says Feb 22 to April 21 is astrologically adverse for trading. How seriously should a trader take this view?

imo one has to stay in touch w/himself at all times. stay tuned in to the market. read whoever, but come to his/her own conclusions and 

stick w/them because if the market does what merriman is not expecting , then what?  the trader is then lost  .   yes, i think its fairly obvious that volatility is going to increase. there are so many things coming to a head.   follow the market. it is the only real guide.  have tools to decipher what it is saying and even still everyone is lost a good percentage of the time.  its the nature of the beast. 

i try to keep w/the big picture . i am following the 70s fractal, which this bull is going to be 25some odd years long. the 70s bull, well comex began trading in 74 by jan 22, 1980 it was all over. so the 75-76 downphase was brief. here the comparable was 11-dec 15

much longer.    we are going to be entering the recognition phase somewhere in this 17/18 time frame then things get easier. 

dharma