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Gold Daily Chart 2-17-2017

DeMark Fib Price & Time Extensions Cyclic Analysis Elliott Wave

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#1 Geomean

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Posted 18 February 2017 - 03:38 PM

There was a request that I post my gold chart on 2/12 which I just saw.  Here is the current look. 

 

A few comments about the notations are in order.

The DeMark Sequential™ has two components, Set Up which begins when a close is higher (for sells) or lower (for buys) than the close 4 bars prior and continues to count  if each subsequent and consecutive bar also bears the same relation to the bar 4 bars prior until a 9 is printed in black (but the range box (large red rectangles) continues until a consecutive sequence of closes higher/lower than 4 bars prior ends.  ( Set up generally hits the thrust phase of a move.)

 

Then countdown begins after a set up 9 prints and it consists of looking back 2 bars prior to see if the close is a higher close (for sells) or lower (for buys).   It does not require a consecutive set of bars and handles the situations were chop can occur or if the thrust continues until it completes on a 13 count.  When that is the case one is alerted to a potential trend exhaustion zone and should await a "price flip" as a good signal that the trend, at least for a short term, has changed.

 

 There are two versions of the Sequential™ on the chart.  The "fully qualified" version, which uses Tom DeMark's recommended settings from his books prints in the small red numbers above or below the price bars, depending on the trend direction.  A Sequential that uses Jason Perl's settings (he wrote the latest book on these indicators for Bloomberg) are in maroon and don't recycle (i.e. get removed from the chart) if a second set up in the same directions prints.  In the fully qualified version, the countdown stops and is removed if a second set up 9 prints in the same direction as the countdown either before or after the countdown absent an intervening set up in the opposite direction.

 

The small numbers above or below the price bars in blue are the TD Combination™ which begins after a set up 9 prints but it looks back into the set up phase to begin counting higher/lower closes compared to 2 bars prior until it. reaches 13, as compared to the Sequential which can only have it's first day of the countdown begin on day 9 of the set up.

 

There is no grand theory behind the Sequential or the combo, Tom DeMark just experimented until he found something that worked.  However, note how close the numbering is to a Fibonacci sequence, with one added for the first day (9-1(first day)v=8) (9-1+13=21)

 

There is a lot of data and analysis on this chart.  Also important are the fib price and time extensions.  I track both the usual Elliott Wave theory price extensions and the fib extensions from all prior inflections above or below the price bars per Larry Pesavento's books.  The sacred ratio, key and golden ratios Larry highlights are framed in red boxes.

 

There is an Elliott Wave count, based on the work of 2 different  experts, as well as my own analysis.

 

Finally, the cyclic analysis is based on Hurst as well as geometric cycle analysis a la Mandelbrot.  The fib time extensions are tied to key Elliott wave turns, some going back to the 2011 top

 

I entered long gold, the miners, the 3x ETF's, silver and platinum Christmas week and sold just about at the top of wave 1 and reentered again on 1/27 at the .382 retrace but did not hold that long enough to capture most of the move.  I plan to reenter when Wave 2 appears done

 

All the Best

 

Geo

 

By the way, if you view the chart on an iPad and newer windows machines you can explode the chart to look at the detail more closely.

 

 

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#2 AChartist

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Posted 18 February 2017 - 10:44 PM

I dont think it is that negative, it could be down up down with last move down

 

at 4-5 weeks setting up the surge, and all holding high level support.

 

It would take a close below 1220

 

to be worse than that. 


"marxism-lennonism-communism always fails and never worked, because I know

some of them, and they don't work"  M.Jordan


#3 Geomean

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Posted 19 February 2017 - 06:56 AM

I dont think it is that negative, it could be down up down with last move down
 
at 4-5 weeks setting up the surge, and all holding high level support.
 
It would take a close below 1220
 
to be worse than that.

It's very difficult to predict where wave 2's end. E signal has published statistics on the subject. The range highlighted is the .5 to .618 of the move up from 12/2016 to Feb 12 (range of .5-.618 highest odds historically for wave 2 retracements). The horizontal light green dots are the .382 & .618 retrace of the prior swing -- I didn't add the full retrace tool as it makes the chart even more cluttered). The area highlighted is also close to the end of wave 4 of the lesser degree (pink 4 of Blue 1) which Elliottians often reference as a retracements ending zone. Also suggestive is that we've already hit the .382 retrace of blue wave 1. Further help is found in reviewing how EWT fib projections from that level hit significant extensions of items already on the chart. (Displaced to the far right of the chart in order to reduce clutter)

Fortunately the sequential/combo & TD Analog™ (the large purple dots on the chart - I had to code some of that-well worth it as they are often dead on instantly at turns- it's a fractal analysis algorithm ) also apply to hourly, and smaller time frame charts. Usually those will print as the smaller waves end, just as they did in the hourly as referenced/posted here the morning of 2/12/2017. So as a turn gets closer, confidence in its exact level can increase. I'll try to post when they align unless I have to be out of my office)

BTW, the @ GC hourly chart was at a 10 of a fully qualified countdown sell signal at the close 2/17/2017.

Edited by Geomean, 19 February 2017 - 07:05 AM.

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#4 Geomean

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Posted 19 February 2017 - 07:23 AM

I dont think it is that negative, it could be down up down with last move down
 
at 4-5 weeks setting up the surge, and all holding high level support.
 
It would take a close below 1220
 
to be worse than that.


I forgot to add that a fib extension of the c wave of the current projected a-b-c pattern is on the chart -- displaced just right of the location of red Y in order to permit review of the typical C wave extensions Ellioticans reference. The 2.618 falls at the highlighted area. Other key extensions, such as the 1.618, would definitely support the view of a shallower retrace here. So if a clear 5 wave c appears to be terminating at that level and cyclic and DeMark indicators align, I'd definitely re-enter long.
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#5 AChartist

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Posted 19 February 2017 - 08:14 AM

It looks like we align, to ready to move up in 4-5 weeks.


"marxism-lennonism-communism always fails and never worked, because I know

some of them, and they don't work"  M.Jordan


#6 AChartist

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Posted 19 February 2017 - 12:49 PM

here's a better chart with more resolution.

 

possible 4 week bottomed or will during next week, for two weeks up to resistance with strong 367 week up,

 

then a drop with the nesting of bottoming cycles to slingshot in 4-5.

 

It can vary quite a bit and follow different paths.

 

What if the 367 week is the real deal and it doesnt look back and everything resets to it, anything can happen like that

 

where cycles come in early or late because there are so many interacting.

 

I added some on Friday actually it was options exercising. I have some more positions to fill out that I am doing by selling

 

other stocks.

 

 

A long Hadik interview, he is saying 4-5 weeks but he cant take bold public statements in his business like I can speculate on.

 

 

 

http://rs1129.pbsrc....&h=210&fit=crop

 

 

 


"marxism-lennonism-communism always fails and never worked, because I know

some of them, and they don't work"  M.Jordan


#7 Geomean

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Posted 21 February 2017 - 10:20 AM

Thanks, I subscribe to Eric's monthly, and will have a listen.  I track his gold cycles, and that's the H-H-L, etc notations on the chart, a la Mandlebrot's work.


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