From the SPY testing of the Pitchfork's upper band (from the topside) last Thurs & Fri, and the subsequent rally late Fri, we got 1/3 of way to the short term target. Today's gap higher and subsequent consolidation has reached the 2/3 mark at SPY 236.3. It may finish higher today as it is perfectly capable of reaching the SPY 237.5 target on a strong run late today. The turn date this week is 2/23 (Thurs), which may be moved up a day on the strong market. It possible that this run will finish over the recent channel upper band with a gap either Wed or Thurs AM. If we gap lower tomorrow, its likely that we get an OOPS buy signal that leads to a new high on Wed and a gap open on Thurs.
I expect a high by Thurs AM and a reversal that gets down close to the last low at SPY 234 by Fri/Mon. There is a major turn date on Mon 2/27, which I would expect to hit by Tues at the latest and this event would then lead to a new high in a choppier manner into April.
I am concerned about my metals position over the next two days, as a local low is likely to be made on 2/23 per a cycles schedule. This COULD carry over into the 2/27 date, which is supposed to a GLD high (full moon), but these dates have not worked out as tops over the last couple of months as the SLV/GLD rally has carried on. The metals should have clear sailing on a cycle basis after these dates and I will reposition to increase my exposure at that time. In the meantime, AG reports tomorrow morning and I have added some insurance with 25 puts to cover the three call positions that are under attack in this metal's pullback. SLV is reacting well to the downward pressure as it recovers each of the gaps lower, so that is encouraging.