4 replies to this topic

[gannman]

from feb 8 it looks to me like an abc 

 

we are now in the c wave and i think the c wave is finished early this coming week fwiw

[AChartist]

Daily gold has broken away from the falling cycles, what I like to see is a rise in the number of short term

 

daily cycle correlations, often moves start that way with the short term cycles. $gold has broken away from the series of

 

falling cycles that are around 66 weeks periods,

 

with that is that 66 week I show a lowpoint in two weeks, it may not manifest because this appears to 

 

already be inverted in the daily basis. How it breaks away is a few days dip with a falling cycle and then

 

translation up in a baton toss to another higher cycle. Once that happens that down cycle is done.

 

 

So if I delete these ~66 week's from the daily chart, it is fairly flat and oscillating so the work being done

 

is in weekly and it may be the power of my rising 366 week cycle taking hold will work. Next daily high should be in

 

15 to 22 days although it is small magnitude it is supporting if my bullish bias is correct.

 

 

So next step I looked at daily GLD/GDX, it was a near term low in mining stocks when this ratio initiated positively.

 

In weekly GLD/GDX positive initiations were positive once, bottoming once, and very neg once of the mining stocks.

 

This would take more history and comparisons but there is something there, it is short term positive but not necessarily long term it appears.

 

 

So maybe we only get a squirt up for one week with my powerful 366 week cycle,

 

but have to see one more mining stock low in two or three weeks where possible

 

in the weekly chart 66 week lowpoint. Was my original pattern idea, up first, dip for support retest

 

and go. We'll see if next week is up for mining stocks.

[Smithy]

Seasonally gold 14 yrs out of 15 made a peak 3/1 and ended the next 7 days lower, that's 93% probability. The 3/1 seasonal peak is the 15 year average date.

 

So I examined that trade for the last 6 years. The highs and lows mentioned here are only short term, not even intermediate.

 

2011 high 3/1  low 3/15

2012 high 2/28  low 3/6

2013 high 2/26 low 3/4

2014 high 3/3 low 3/7

2015 high 2/27 low 3/17

2016 high 3/7 low 3/15

 

I think Friday's 1260.1 is a local peak, so this argues for lower gold prices all next week. Then Friday is March 3rd so I'll start looking for a "local"  low from Monday March 6th for 10 days to Weds 3/15 approx.  This analysis isn't worth much but it is something I'll keep an eye on.

 

Generally speaking, on the bearish side the weekly stochastic is crying out for a multi-week drop. On the bullish side when gold gets above 1260 I will be long.  Good luck, all.

Edited by Smithy, 25 February 2017 - 01:10 PM.

[AChartist]

Seasonally gold 14 yrs out of 15 made a peak 3/1 and ended the next 7 days lower, that's 93% probability. The 3/1 seasonal peak is the 15 year average date.

 

So I examined that trade for the last 6 years. The highs and lows mentioned here are only short term, not even intermediate.

 

2011 high 3/1  low 3/15

2012 high 2/28  low 3/6

2013 high 2/26 low 3/4

2014 high 3/3 low 3/7

2015 high 2/27 low 3/17

2016 high 3/7 low 3/15

 

I think Friday's 1260.1 is a local peak, so this argues for lower gold prices all next week. Then Friday is March 3rd so I'll start looking for a "local"  low from Monday March 6th for 10 days to Weds 3/15 approx.  This analysis isn't worth much but it is something I'll keep an eye on.

 

Generally speaking, on the bearish side the weekly stochastic is crying out for a multi-week drop. On the bullish side when gold gets above 1260 I will be long.  Good luck, all.

 

Sounds reasonable I just hope it is shallow and short after 3/1 and it can be.

[AChartist]

Dohmen, spotted what I did of $gold crossover significance of 1243 low 1252 close.

 

30 year bull mkt

 

I hope next week is good for the next low to be minor above support then my interpretation is right.