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Nearly CLosed Gap & Triggered OOPS Buy


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#1 thoughtpwr

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Posted 06 March 2017 - 01:59 PM

Tested the pitchfork and have bounced nicely today.  The bounce even produced a OOPS Buy signal, however there is very little chance that the pitchfork will not be tested either later today or on the open tomorrow in a gap down. I didn't really close out my shorts when I had the chance as I thought we would fully close the gap. It's possible that we do that tomorrow morning, since 3/8 is supposed to be the low, however, unless we test the pitchfork yet today, I think tomorrow is consumed with exchanging shorts for longs and getting fully long.

 

One possibility is that today is the bottom and tomorrow we gap higher and put in the same small positive little doji that we potentially put in today and put in on Fri. With a third at a higher level, such as where Fri's took place, that would put in a three day Tristar formation and it would be of the bottom formation needed to go higher on a candle basis.

 

URA reached my nominal downside target of 15.70 on the open and I exited my shorts and entered long Aprl 15 calls. The stock is down to a low of 15.31 and has turned higher at this point. I am hesitant to add a put spread until I am sure it has bottomed.  My target for April 5 is 30.

 

EEM has not really turned negative and has managed to hang in a lateral move today.  I would expect with a gap down tomorrow, that it will move lower, even if the SPY bottoms and turns higher.

 

SCHW has hung in there decently Thurs through today, however, on a gap lower it could take quite a hit and go down to support, so I intend on keeping the hedge on it until tomorrow's open.  CSCO has done well today, testing 34 and bouncing nicely.

 

I see we are starting to sell off again, so I am looking for a test of the pitchfork again this PM and finishing near today's open, during which I will l exit some shorts and enter some longs prior to Tues AM.  If not, I await tomorrow's open. 

 

It's possible some of the gold stocks have put in a bottom today.  It may only be a bounce, but I will hold with the cycles for now, which imply a new high for this rally by 3/21.


Edited by thoughtpwr, 06 March 2017 - 02:04 PM.


#2 Charvo

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Posted 06 March 2017 - 07:47 PM

I agree with the EEM comment.  I think lateral move is the best it can do for now while the US markets still has a bullish bias.  I think the EEM is fixing to head down pretty soon.