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SPY: Another Day More Attempted Grinding Higher


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#1 thoughtpwr

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Posted 09 March 2017 - 11:47 AM

We did not get a gap down as we could have easily gotten given the more negative extreme action in some overseas markets.

 

The $NYMO ~ - 80 probably gives us a bounce here today or tomorrow, and it looks like we are trying to make it today.  3/8 was supposed to be a bottom by Harley.

 

We got the same rally up to the downtrend line this morning that we have gotten the last couple of days; however, we didn't go through all of the retracement prices and have held at the 61% retracemt of the rally off the bottom. We have made attempts higher and have managed sideways action just under the 270 area. That it the main difference, so far. 

 

I didn't think we could grind out of this (and we may not be able to), but if we can get above 270.5 and make it our support, this thing has the potential to be over. We will see.

 

I noticed the gold stocks are not dropping the same amount as the metal is over the last several days, and it appears to me that we could put in a bottom if we can manage to go sideways over the next 4-5 days through the Fed mtg. I am suggesting we don't see the same action we did in Dec hike, but that could drive us down to 1183 anyways.  I am looking for gold stocks to rally over the next 4-6 weeks after the Fed hikes.



#2 trioderob

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Posted 09 March 2017 - 01:34 PM

there is no way this thing is turning around with China down so big - watch the EEM index 



#3 thoughtpwr

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Posted 09 March 2017 - 01:51 PM

We have sold off on the third attempt at the down trendline.  So far we have held above the lows and I think this is important in trying to pull out an Inside Day Up, no matter how small the value of the gain.  That can change at any moment, but if it can hold through the close, then I think we have a decent possibility of gapping out of the lows and above resistance at the 2 hr 20 MOV = 237.5.  Hopeful, going into the close.



#4 thoughtpwr

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Posted 09 March 2017 - 06:51 PM

About the only thing you can say about today is there were buyers down there.  But did we use them all up? 

 

Touched the 20 DMA,   With the $NYMO now at -88 and still outside the BB, I would take that what we saw today was NOT the bounce coming.  Hopefully, with > 250k jobs tomorrow, we gap higher and establish a higher level of support or run to the high. 

 

$CPCI got higher to 1.25, but I am surprised it didn't get higher today.  $CPCE is at .72 so it is also getting there; we are at least at the values that we last ran to the high. 

 

Normally, we would be overbought on the short term, so we can retest the low tomorrow (once again), but our special AM event could make all the difference.



#5 Charvo

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Posted 09 March 2017 - 07:49 PM

We did not get a gap down as we could have easily gotten given the more negative extreme action in some overseas markets.

 

The $NYMO ~ - 80 probably gives us a bounce here today or tomorrow, and it looks like we are trying to make it today.  3/8 was supposed to be a bottom by Harley.

 

We got the same rally up to the downtrend line this morning that we have gotten the last couple of days; however, we didn't go through all of the retracement prices and have held at the 61% retracemt of the rally off the bottom. We have made attempts higher and have managed sideways action just under the 270 area. That it the main difference, so far. 

 

I didn't think we could grind out of this (and we may not be able to), but if we can get above 270.5 and make it our support, this thing has the potential to be over. We will see.

 

I noticed the gold stocks are not dropping the same amount as the metal is over the last several days, and it appears to me that we could put in a bottom if we can manage to go sideways over the next 4-5 days through the Fed mtg. I am suggesting we don't see the same action we did in Dec hike, but that could drive us down to 1183 anyways.  I am looking for gold stocks to rally over the next 4-6 weeks after the Fed hikes.

I agree.  I think gold, treasuries, and commodities bounce after the Fed because turbulence is going to happen in the stock market.  It's already happening in the EEM.  I sold my EEM puts, but I'm looking to reload on Friday on the inevitable volatility pushdown into the weekend.