7 replies to this topic

[kssmibotm]

I read a good article on StockCharts by Greg Morris on climbing the wall of worry and why many forecasters insist on calling tops.  Here is snippet from the article that I thought was relevant to the top callers on TT:

 

... many naysayers find personal joy in being right on rare occasions and because they are relatively unknowns, there isn’t much risk.  Certainly, there isn’t any career risk because IF they just happen to guess correctly, it can be a career game changer for them.  Reminds me of Elaine Garzarelli in 1987 – look it up.  One great market call, and that was it.

 

As bull markets mature, the calling of tops is part of the game for many.  Use a process that keeps all that noise out of your decision making and you might not even notice it.   If you do, it will just be for entertainment.  The markets climb a wall of worry; they have in the past, they will in the future.  We are climbing one now.

[kssmibotm]

Full disclosure: I have called tops in the past, so I am as guilty as anyone here on TT.  I am not trying to be a hypocrite, nor am I pointing the finger at anyone.  Just food for thought.

[Charvo]

Calling tops in the US markets requires numerous divergences.  I think foreign markets have topped.  EEM is done in my view unless the Fed doesn't hike rates  That would be a surprise to me.

[K Wave]

not calling long term top here...but we now have 3 drive top at 5400 on NQ, which actually makes a case for a bit stronger swing top (as long as 5400 does not get taken out after Dutch Election tomorrow).....and A/D line may be shaping up for doozy of a down day today, which could put NAZ summation back below Zero line by close.....

 

Anyway, heavily short near 5400 level, with stop at 5401 now.....

Edited by K Wave, 14 March 2017 - 08:51 AM.

[12SPX]

It's a very interesting subject but having been trading for about 40 years I have seen many tops and blow offs.  Because I just sell premium I never really care anymore about tops or bottoms but do notice the differences in volatility.  Healthy markets see volatility and unhealthy markets only see one direction its really that simple.  Longest term we haven't seen healthy markets because of government intervention, intermediate term average and short term not at all!!  Its ridiculous to go over 100 days without a 1% correction when everything points to at least some type of indecision, "volatility" starting.  Nonetheless I'm sure that once President Trump gets settled in and people finally realize that when he snaps his fingers things still take time to get done maybe then we'll see some volatility start.  Maybe even this week,,,,,,, could we see a miracle and see a -1% down day today, hmmmmmm.  

[qqqqtrdr]

We could have a top here.....    It does look somewhat promising.....    Given the low VIX, high valuation, drop in oil prices, etc....   Short term we are due for $SPX to hit it's 50-day MA or a 45 point drop on the S&P...

[pedro]

Not always, but the most consistent evidence for a top is when the first derivative of the MACD line drops to zero on the longer term charts, which OPENS THE DOOR to a potential top.

 

Its turned down on the weekly this week (derivative negative).   But on the monthly its not close.     Can't pull up the quarterly off my system.

[Charvo]

I think the US markets rally after the Fed meeting with all the hedging on Tuesday.  Implied volatility spiked which is usual before the Fed.  I think EEM is ready for the rug pull though.