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#11 Iblayz

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Posted 19 March 2017 - 03:20 PM

Post Deleted. Will try again.


Edited by Iblayz, 19 March 2017 - 03:22 PM.


#12 Iblayz

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Posted 19 March 2017 - 04:39 PM

Hi Guys  I was traveling to the Dominican and just saw this. Dividing the ES shorts by 5 and adding to the S&P shorts I get about 50,000 to the short side. That total as far as I can tell is the largest combined total in a long time. The NQ commercial shorts were at just over 80,000 and were over 140,000 short a few months ago and this is not divided by 5. It's only one indicator and nothing more. The market seems to be acting a little tired and that combined with the increase in the combined ES & S&P commercial shorts, I thought was noteworthy. I could be completely wrong. Just trying to share what I thought was useful information. Best of luck to all. 

 

I wasn't trying to ridicule your post or your efforts and I hope it wasn't taken that way. It's just that, historically speaking (and from my own observational experience), the current SPX Commercial short position is nothing to get excited about. More about that below. If you go here http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmelf.htm and scroll down to the S&P 500 section, you will notice several reports. And the first one (S&P 500 Consolidated) has already done the work that you mentioned in that the Large contract and the minis are combined (by dividing the minis by 5 and adding to the $250.00 contract). The net is they are short by 49,028 contracts. After struggling for over an hour to get the numbers to format properly on this site, I have documented below the Consolidated SPX COT report from January 3, 2013 to February 24, 2014. In that timeframe the SPX advanced from 1455.53 to 1858.71.......403.18 points and a whopping 27.7%. During that timeframe, the average commercial short position week by week from that same consolidated report (#13874+) was 54,773.4 contracts. I even chose a smaller timeframe within that period for reference.....June 24, 2013 to August 2, 2013. During that timeframe the SPX advanced 149.34 points (+9.6%). And guess what? The commercials were net short during that timeframe by 60,804 contracts on a weekly averaged basis. The argument could be made from historical reference that the cash index actually starts advancing as the short positions start rising. In other words, as they buy more and more and the index advances more and more they HEDGE more and more.....until everybody gets too far on the same side and the cracks finally start appearing. And from my experience, that usually starts happening when you see the reportable non-commercials and the non reportable players VERY long week-over-week AND the commercials very heavily short. And please don't get upset and STOP your occasional posts about Hurst targets........appreciate your efforts there greatly.

 

Report Date….     Report….               Long……….            Short………             Net

1/8/2013….         13874+….             613841….             669260….             -55419

1/15/2013….       13874+….             627613….             678230….             -50617

1/22/2013….       13874+….             650584….             687924….             -37340

1/29/2013….       13874+….             693414….             726995….             -33581

2/5/2013….         13874+….             688974….             740392….             -51418

2/12/2013….       13874+….             715132….             750674….             -35542

2/19/2013….       13874+….             725053….             761044….             -35991

2/26/2013….       13874+….             724532….             777921….             -53389

3/5/2013….         13874+….             723053….             788951….             -65898

3/12/2013….       13874+….             842790….             912848….             -70058

3/19/2013….       13874+….             587449….             671454….             -84005

3/26/2013….       13874+….             615331….             688609….             -73278

4/2/2013….         13874+….             617932….             693696….             -75764

4/9/2013….         13874+….             635216….             709020….             -73804

4/16/2013….       13874+….             649695….             726525….             -76830

4/23/2013….       13874+….             624700….             691833….             -67133

4/30/2013….       13874+….             635127….             719360….             -84233

5/7/2013….         13874+….             690467….             758300….             -67833

5/14/2013….       13874+….             762697….             825141….             -62444

5/21/2013….       13874+….             756471….             817640….             -61169

5/28/2013….       13874+….             768739….             847793….             -79054

6/4/2013….         13874+….             766027….             815097….             -49070

6/11/2013….       13874+….             784940….             826322….             -41382

6/18/2013….       13874+….             859815….             902467….             -42652

6/25/2013….       13874+….             586117….             648809….             -62692

7/2/2013….         13874+….             589066….             642918….             -53852

7/9/2013….         13874+….             592861….             645942….             -53081

7/16/2013….       13874+….             615051….             681409….             -66358

7/23/2013….       13874+….             596561….             667355….             -70794

7/30/2013….       13874+….             600657….             676856….             -76199

8/6/2013….         13874+….             608155….             671373….             -63218

8/13/2013….       13874+….             610343….             672982….             -62639

8/20/2013….       13874+….             606839….             664434….             -57595

8/27/2013….       13874+….             644396….             683610….             -39214

9/3/2013….         13874+….             641474….             672523….             -31049

9/10/2013….       13874+….             667143….             687662….             -20519

9/17/2013….       13874+….             773784….             816037….             -42253

9/24/2013….       13874+….             558958….             629056….             -70098

10/1/2013….       13874+….             555039….             621433….             -66394

10/8/2013….       13874+….             601145….             661552….             -60407

10/15/2013….     13874+….             603027….             661286….             -58259

10/22/2013….     13874+….             617704….             660114….             -42410

10/29/2013….     13874+….             642977….             696079….             -53102

11/5/2013….       13874+….             633612….             694327….             -60715

11/12/2013….     13874+….             642271….             697528….             -55257

11/19/2013….     13874+….             638289….             688123….             -49834

11/26/2013….     13874+….             651514….             708449….             -56935

12/3/2013….       13874+….             653968….             706833….             -52865

12/10/2013….     13874+….             667450….             719389….             -51939

12/17/2013….     13874+….             775096….             837282….             -62186

12/24/2013….     13874+….             563308….             621545….             -58237

12/31/2013….     13874+….             564136….             620268….             -56132

1/7/2014….         13874+….             561025….             623561….             -62536

1/14/2014….       13874+….             588099….             638536….             -50437

1/21/2014….       13874+….             584702….             622286….             -37584

1/28/2014….       13874+….             613398….             654763….             -41365

2/4/2014….         13874+….             649923….             691200….             -41277

2/11/2014....       13874+....            674055....             679252....              -5197

2/18/2014....       13874+....            693338....             704434....             -11096


Edited by Iblayz, 19 March 2017 - 04:42 PM.


#13 Spectacular Bid

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Posted 19 March 2017 - 05:09 PM

lblayz           Thanks for your reply and the info. I was never upset at all. In fact I just finished my 2nd large vodka drink and was quite entertained reading. I'm now switching to a Presidente. I would say that sometimes the levels that have meaning do change over time and In was merely pointing out that the close to 50,000 total shorts was larger than it's been, but as you correctly point out it is not greater than it was in parts of 2013 and 2014. Obviously we'll see what if anything this means over the next several weeks. BTW I am only looking for a 3% to 6% correction overall into late April with maybe new highs in between and then a better rally after that, so I'm not looking at the COT as  anything more than a missing piece to other indicators which I thought were showing some slight deterioration.   



#14 Iblayz

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Posted 19 March 2017 - 05:18 PM

lblayz           Thanks for your reply and the info. I was never upset at all. In fact I just finished my 2nd large vodka drink and was quite entertained reading. I'm now switching to a Presidente. I would say that sometimes the levels that have meaning do change over time and In was merely pointing out that the close to 50,000 total shorts was larger than it's been, but as you correctly point out it is not greater than it was in parts of 2013 and 2014. Obviously we'll see what if anything this means over the next several weeks. BTW I am only looking for a 3% to 6% correction overall into late April with maybe new highs in between and then a better rally after that, so I'm not looking at the COT as  anything more than a missing piece to other indicators which I thought were showing some slight deterioration.   

 

Well, in YOUR defense, I just looked at the historical data going back from the present through a lot of 2016. And you appear to be very right about the current position being further oriented to the short side than it has been for some time. Truthfully, I had only glanced occasionally at this data since I gave up on its usefulness several years ago. Maybe things have changed a bit.



#15 Spectacular Bid

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Posted 19 March 2017 - 05:26 PM

I was going to send out my press secretary to defend all my numbers and conclusions if it became necessary.



#16 Iblayz

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Posted 19 March 2017 - 06:13 PM

OK. I'll just tweet "fake news"!



#17 dasein

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Posted 20 March 2017 - 09:42 AM

the fin indices are a different matter than actual commodities with the COT - agree that the COT relative measures are most important - and one should also add in the PC ratio and the ISEE numbers to get a fuller picture


best,
klh