Last week the Russell 2000 bounced at the 20 week moving average it's first test in a while as expected almost to the penny 🤔
While higher index prices are telling us one thing high yield markets are telling us caution is warranted.High-yield bonds became overbought at the end of February. Each time this has happened since just after the bull market started in 2009 the S&P has topped within 18 trading days, and corrected between 5-10% over the next 8 weeks. Bulls might argue it's different this time💀
Will be stalking swing trade short this week😧
28 replies to this topic
#2
kssmibotm
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Posted 19 March 2017 - 01:33 PM
Interesting. What high yield market are you looking at? How many times has this indicator led to a 5-10% correction since 2009? Would be nice if you could show a chart that illustrates this relationship.
People think the Holy Grail is something looked for but never found. In fact, it is something often found but rarely recognized.
#3
merciless
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Posted 19 March 2017 - 01:55 PM
Six signals since 2007
Drawdowns 10%,13%,25% in 2007-2008
Three signals since 2009
Drawdowns 2% ,7 % and 7 %
This is seventh signal, as you can see returns are even better in a bear market
Drawdowns 10%,13%,25% in 2007-2008
Three signals since 2009
Drawdowns 2% ,7 % and 7 %
This is seventh signal, as you can see returns are even better in a bear market
#4
merciless
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Posted 19 March 2017 - 01:57 PM
The 2% was just after the new bow market started
#5
K Wave
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Posted 20 March 2017 - 08:17 AM
Trump bump still holding as the high for all but NAZ, which exceeded it just slightly last week...
Watching action on NQ very closely here today....tested the key 5400 level overnight, and if it holds back kiss of 5 min 900 this AM around 5413, and then proceeds to break 5400 on crappy breadth, we may finally have a real good swing top in place...4 hour chart started looking very tired with that last bar on Friday....
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
#6
SemiBizz
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Posted 20 March 2017 - 09:24 AM
New High Nasdaq - driven by new highs in SOXX
Friday's high came on 3.1B shares on Nasdaq...
Consistent with retest.
Tested on lighter volume this morning.
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#7
K Wave
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Posted 20 March 2017 - 12:16 PM
NQ 4 hour chart trying to put in long tailed spike, with breadth less than stellar....
Shorted NQ at 5420...will cover if it gets taken out again, or if it does not break back below 5413 soon...
Once this this thing finally gives up, could see a swift move down for a few days...
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
#8
SemiBizz
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Posted 20 March 2017 - 12:23 PM
Yep, good luck, I can't do Nasdaq related here with the SOXX raging...
This could run right into 1050 here
Gonna sit out that portion of the market.
Easier prey is BANKS...
Edited by SemiBizz, 20 March 2017 - 12:24 PM.
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#9
K Wave
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Posted 20 March 2017 - 12:45 PM
KA-Boom!
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
#10
K Wave
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Posted 20 March 2017 - 12:45 PM
Now just need to take 5400.....
The strength of Government lies in the people's ignorance, and the Government knows this, and will therefore always oppose true enlightenment. - Leo Tolstoy
