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#11 lawdog

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Posted 23 March 2017 - 12:10 AM

11/4/16 40% Long Bulls.

6/28/16 42% Long Bulls.

 

sorry. look at the dailies from 11/8 on, bears. so they have one day of something close to bullish and that qualifies? this is the last time i argue the point. 



#12 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 23 March 2017 - 08:00 AM

Mark,

 

I look at this every day. Every. Single. Day. I realize that makes me so intimate with the data that I can winnow signals out of subtlety. 

Those 40%-42% leans long marked the lows. In a down trend, that's a pretty good lean, in fact (I'll settle for even less, actually). I'm not saying that the majority is fully long, only that a lot are long when you'd expect them to be short. This crew has a lot of passable bottom and top spotters. Over time, I've learned that you'll often get "Sell signals" right at the low. I know to pass on those if the market is looking bottomy.

 

Now, I'm NOT saying that every time this crew is leaning long, it's a low. Only that you are ALMOST CERTAIN of NOT making a low unless we're leaning pretty long. When you're almost certain of something in the market, that is both very rare and valuable. In this case, for instance, since I know with near certainty that the low isn't in, I should be taking every ST sell I get. I can still be wrong, but the odds are pretty good that I'm going to make money if the signals are any good at all.

 

BTW, it is the nuances in the sentiment like this that keeps the edge from being exploited away by bots.

 

M


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#13 lawdog

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Posted 23 March 2017 - 09:30 AM

thanks, mark. that helps me understand.



#14 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 23 March 2017 - 01:14 PM

BTW, I'm short today. They're driving me nuts but I'm still positive so far.

 

M


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#15 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 23 March 2017 - 02:20 PM

And I just took 10 points profit on my short, leaving me up 8 points net for both our day trading Models.

 

I'll take it.

 

Mark


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#16 SemiBizz

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Posted 23 March 2017 - 02:31 PM

SELLOFF PICKING UP STEAM INTO THE CLOSE.....

 

BOOOMMMMMM !!!

 

RUT and BKX last remaining green on my screen and BKX fading to RED...

 

SHORT SQUEEZE FAILED....

 

Tomorrow they will try to wash it out....

 

 


Edited by SemiBizz, 23 March 2017 - 02:35 PM.

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#17 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 23 March 2017 - 03:06 PM

That's my thinking too, prior to getting my evening and morning data.

 

M


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