Christopher Carolan, Editor
On Time Update
2 August 2004 3:00PM
TWO WEEK WATCH
Our trend work for stocks is positive. The 135-minute trend went positive at 1088 and the daily trend followed that at Friday’s close, near 1105 on the September S&P futures. But our internal measurements are decidedly less bullish. The put/call ratio is not bullish and is arguably bearish. Our unique Tricks Index says that no sustainable bottom has occurred. Finally, the 1946 analog, published in last week’s newsletter and updated daily on the On Time website argues for about 2 weeks of sideways to higher rally followed by a collapse. That outlook is completely consistent with our indicators.
Here’s a useful guide for trading with our daily and weekly trends as shown on the website. Trading opportunities occue when a market’s trend moves to neutral in the direction of the weekly trend. An example as silver last week. The weekly trend is up, the daily trend moved from down to neutral on Wednesday with the futures at 637. Silver is now at 661. Bonds will improve to neutral on the daily trend on today’s close of near 108 13/32. The weekly trend is up. This is a long-trade opportunity in bonds. (Risk between ½ and ¾ of a point on the trade.) We are looking for a short opportunity in the S&P in about two weeks. One way to find it will be when the daily trend weakens to neutral. The weekly trend is already down. Gold would be a long opportunity if it improves to neutral, but I’d avoid it as silver is the better play. The weekly trends in both the euro and yen are neutral, so there are no imminent opportunities there.
Christopher Carolan
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On-Time: is edited by Christopher Carolan and published during times of emotional market conditions and extraordinary trading opportunities.
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