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Looking for SPY to Put in Bottom


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#1 thoughtpwr

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Posted 24 March 2017 - 09:41 AM

Harley has a 93 day cycle that marks most dramatic bottoms throughout the last two years (Brexit, election, etc.) That ended on 3/22 with a +/- 2 day window.  That implies the bottom is in by the close of the day regardless of what the Obamacare vote is and the pivot to taxes. We may yet sell off into a low today, we will have to see.  However, Curry cycle analysis marked a sharp down move followed by sharp up move after options expiration as well.

 

I am looking for SPY to work its way over yesterday's high at 235.34 and rally from there, but close the day on a retracement to the 235.34 area. That may be too much for one day to accomplish, but my money is on that scenario. If we recover as rapidly as the Curry cycles say, it shouldn't be too much and we will be on our way to new highs.



#2 Shaggies_View

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Posted 24 March 2017 - 10:20 AM

I see that we sell the early 1h high on the ES down to low 2342+/- region before the low is in.

Shaggy



#3 Iblayz

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Posted 24 March 2017 - 10:20 AM

I was looking for yesterday to be it....a local bottom that is (with the usual sputtering as it tries to get back on its feet).



#4 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 24 March 2017 - 11:24 AM

Cycles analysis for me has been working less and less, so it is temporarily on hold...    Market overall is looking better from a growth vs valuation...  Strong housing numbers should keep the market from correcting too much... 



#5 thoughtpwr

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Posted 24 March 2017 - 02:37 PM

With 1/2 to go to close, the formation is of a 1-2 formation over the last three days, as long as we hold the Wed low. I am not sure anything gets done today, unless they pull out a mirage and pass the healthcare bill. Monday requires an immediate rally to put in the bottom. I have been fortunate today, since WDC has gapped higher on open and that has kept my day flat.

 

People know it isn't going to pass and have known this is case for the last three days, so I am not sure we sell off if it fails.

 

Latest word says vote has been postponed, so that puts in a wild card. I am not sure it wouldn't be better to get the vote done before the market closes, but that isn't going to happen.



#6 thoughtpwr

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Posted 24 March 2017 - 02:47 PM

Just announced they pulled the bill and the market rallied sharply.  Not sure why, but it fits with the 1-2 formation in which it has rallied to resistance at 234.5  and we should see some consolidation at this level for several hours on Mon before we can move higher (assuming a bottom). The 40 DMA seems to be supporting the market for the moment.

 

I see the consolidation has started and looks right for the moment. Its possible we complete consolidation and are ready to run on Mon open. 


Edited by thoughtpwr, 24 March 2017 - 02:52 PM.


#7 Iblayz

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Posted 24 March 2017 - 03:00 PM

Taking out the prior low even by a couple of ticks puts the 23rd date as a low as incorrect in my view. We either bounce and go higher before turning and making a lower low or I will be looking for a big low on Monday the 27th.


Edited by Iblayz, 24 March 2017 - 03:01 PM.


#8 thoughtpwr

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Posted 24 March 2017 - 03:12 PM

Quick look at assuming 1-2 move, then the target is 241.06 on SPY.